Redistricting a highly political, controversial process

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
The Deseret News
June 6, 2010

One year from now, Utah legislators will be in the redistricting process. It will impact the political futures of hundreds of Utah officials as candidates run in new districts in 2012. This once-a-decade procedure always creates political heat and raises some questions:

The citizens initiative to create an independent, non-partisan redistricting commission failed to get on the ballot. Is it possible to take politics out of redistricting?

Pignanelli: "The American political system is like fast food — mushy, insipid, made out of disgusting parts of things and everybody wants some." — PJ O'Rourke. A nasty, brutish, petty activity that fosters selfishness and greed best describes the dynamics of reapportionment — and that is just within each political party's caucuses. If the purest of souls were appointed to a neutral redistricting commission, they would still be bombarded with pressure from rural, urban, ethnic, geographic, municipal/county concerns along with incumbents seeking protection of the positions to which they were rightfully elected. To balance these legitimate interests, even the most sainted would resort to … (gasp) politics.

Webb: Redistricting is an inherently political exercise. Assigning it to other groups only moves the politics to a different level and reduces accountability to voters. The Legislature is best suited to create new districts. I believe lawmakers next year will go to great lengths to make the process transparent and inclusive. They will hold dozens of hearings around the state and receive suggestions from all interested parties. They might even make software available so individuals and groups can create their own redistricting plans. It will be the most open redistricting process ever.

What individuals and parties are likely to be winners and losers in redistricting?

Webb: A fundamental principle of redistricting is one man, one vote. Districts must be equal in population. That means rapid-growth areas like northern Utah County and Washington County will pick up seats, while no-growth or slow-growth areas will lose. A fact of life is that no-growth areas are often represented by Democrats, while Republicans dominate high-growth areas. Thus, some Democratic districts are going to be consolidated. Two incumbents might end up in the same district. Equal population also means that some cities, counties and neighborhoods will have to be divided. It's simply impossible to fit all of Utah's 29 counties, hundreds of cities and thousands of neighborhoods into 29 Senate districts and 75 House districts, without cutting through a lot of boundaries.

Pignanelli: Utahns who voted for Obama (aka Democrats) or live near a farm should get ready for some rough treatment in the reapportionment process. Straightforward demographic analysis documents that the state population has shifted and grown toward the south. Thus, Salt Lake City will lose two or three House seats and one Senate seat, as will rural Utah. Despite all the development in Herriman/Daybreak, Salt Lake County will net a loss of two seats. Utah and Washington counties are expected to gain several House and Senate seats. (Whoah! This means the 2013 Legislature is likely to be more conservative than the current makeup.)

Utah is expected to receive a 4th congressional seat. What are the ramifications of dividing the state into four districts for incumbent congressmen and congressional wannabes?

Pignanelli: For the last 30 years, Utah Republicans could not stop themselves from cute tactics when redrawing the 2nd Congressional District. But the cleverness rarely delivered the goods. Democrats have won the seat in 10 of the 15 elections during this time period, despite obvious gerrymandering. Since the last redistricting transformed Jim Matheson into a statewide powerhouse, there will be little attempt to eliminate him. The Legislature is expected to draw a southern Utah congressional district, which politicos designate as the "Clark-Urquhart" seat (named after the likely contenders House Speaker David Clark and State Sen. Steve Urquhart). There are rumors again of lumping Democrats together into one congressional seat, but national Republicans are unlikely to allow an automatic giveaway to the opposition. Several shrewd GOP operatives are considering an ingenious plan that dumps a substantial number of liberals into one district (to ensure the Democratic nomination of left-wing candidates) but with enough Republican/independent votes that would react negatively and guarantee a GOP win in every election.

Webb: Congressional redistricting will be closely watched and may be highly controversial. It will be impossible to please everyone. In the redistricting process a decade ago, lawmakers made incumbent Congressman Jim Hansen, a fellow Republican, so angry that redistricting was a factor in his decision to retire. Cute gerrymandering for partisan purposes often doesn't work, especially over a 10-year period, as has been demonstrated by the highly adaptable Congressman Matheson. Lots of options will exist: Should Salt Lake County be divided into all four districts? Should Democrats get a liberal/Democratic district combining the Salt Lake area with the Park City area of Summit County (which could actually endanger Matheson, not help him)? Numerous variables exist, and none will be universally popular.

One thing is for certain: Redistricting will be a wild ride in 2011, and will create many new opportunities for aspiring politicians at congressional and legislative levels.

Republican LaVarr Webb is a political consultant and lobbyist. Previously he was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and a Deseret News managing editor. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. Pignanelli served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as minority leader. His spouse, D'Arcy Dixon Pignanelli, is a Utah state tax commissioner.