Stage set for another Texas battle over redistricting

Dave Montgomery
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
March 28, 2010

AUSTIN -- For now, it's being waged quietly below the surface as party operatives, consultants, computer wonks and legislative analysts pore over emerging census data and preliminary maps charting population changes.

But in the coming months, the battle over congressional and legislative reapportionment will explode into full view as Republicans and Democrats plunge into a power struggle played out at least once every decade -- transforming population changes into control of the statehouse and Texas' delegation in the U.S. House of Representatives.

With its population expected to grow to more than 25 million, the Lone Star State appears on track to pick up at least three, and possibly four, new seats in the House of Representatives, the largest gain of any state.

And because much of that growth has been centered in North Texas, Tarrant County could be in line for an additional legislative seat, expanding its delegation in the state House from 10 to 11.

Redistricting will easily overshadow much of the work of the 2011 Legislature, complicating a session that will also be struggling with an $11 billion-plus budget shortfall, new healthcare mandates from Washington and a host of other contentious issues.

At stake: power

The outcome will help shape power in the Legislature and the congressional delegation for the coming decade. Consequently, Republicans and Democrats are giving added importance to this year's legislative races as they scramble for an advantage on redistricting when lawmakers convene in January.

Republicans are expected to maintain their majority in the 31-member state Senate after the November election, but both sides are battling for control of the 150-member House, where Republicans now have a 77-73 majority. Republicans say they are on track to expanding their majority. Democrats believe they are within reach of gaining control of the House for the first time since they lost it in the 2002 elections.

The state's last redistricting episode put Texas in the national spotlight and turned into a long-playing drama after then-U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay engineered a Republican redistricting plan in 2003. The effort, spanning one regular session and three special sessions of the Legislature, provoked partisan acrimony and saw Democrats flee the state twice to block a quorum. The ultimate plan, which gave Republicans control of the Texas congressional delegation, produced legal challenges that went all the way to the Supreme Court.

Both sides, still harboring lingering memories of those angry confrontations during the rare mid-decade redistricting effort, have spent months gearing up for the next redistricting showdown. The national parties and associated groups have also invested energy, resources and personnel to influence the outcome of this year's legislative races as well as the subsequent effort to redraw legislative and congressional lines.

Just where those lines will go won't be clear until after the Legislature begins work, but preliminary census data show generally which areas of the state will likely win, and which will lose, based on population growth.

Much of the focus has centered on fast-growing North Texas, which could land one of the new congressional districts as well as a possible new legislative seat in Tarrant County. There has also been speculation that North Texas could get a new legislative district that has Hispanics or African-Americans in the majority.

Metroplex may gain

State Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth, a member of the Texas House Redistricting Committee, said urban areas such as Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington are "likely to be big winners as far as congressional and state legislative seats are concerned," in large part because of the state's growth of Hispanic and African-American populations over the past decade.

"The reason that urban areas will probably wind up having more clout in the Legislature and Congress will be because of that growth," he said.

During the past decade, Texas' population has increased by more than 16 percent, twice as much as the nation as a whole. Much of the growth in Texas has occurred in South Texas, along the Interstate 35 corridor, and in metropolitan areas. From 2008 to 2009, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area posted the biggest numeric growth in the country -- with 146,530 new residents -- and is now the fourth-largest metropolitan area in the country, with 6.4 million residents, according to the Census Bureau

Tarrant County has added 344,000 people since the 2000 Census, the fifth-highest total of any county in the nation, said Robert Bernstein, a spokesman for the Census Bureau. Tarrant now ranks as the 16th-largest county, with 1.7 million residents, according to the Census Bureau.

Texas has 10 of the 25 fastest-growing U.S. counties -- Harris, Tarrant, Bexar, Collin, Dallas, Travis, Fort Bend, Denton, Williamson and Hidalgo.

Conversely, the Panhandle, rural West Texas and rural East Texas grew more slowly and could be in danger of losing clout when new lines are drawn. Only a few of Texas' 254 counties actually lost population, according to the House Research Organization.

Because of the growth, the average congressional district is expected to increase to about 710,000 people -- compared with the current number of nearly 647,000. The average population in the state's 150 Texas House districts will rise from 139,000 to around 167,000. State Senate districts are expected to grow from about 672,000 to as much as 784,000.

Texas a focal point

Of 11 states expected to gain congressional seats, Texas will get the most -- at least three, and possibly four -- thus becoming a focal point in the nationwide redistricting sweepstakes. Predictably, Democrats and Republicans have a lot to say about where they think those seats should go and who should occupy them.

State Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, a prominent participant in the 2003 redistricting effort, said his party is shooting for picking up three of the seats -- a fourth, he said, would likely be a Hispanic district -- to help Republicans gain control of Congress and oust House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. King is chairman of GOPAC-TX, which has raised money and recruited and trained Republican candidates in this year's legislative races.

By contrast, a key goal of Democrats is to reverse the present GOP tilt in the 32-member Texas congressional delegation, now made up of 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats. A major element of that strategy, Democratic strategist Matt Angle says, is to end Republicans' hold on congressional representation in Tarrant County. With its four Republican representatives, Angle said, Tarrant is the largest metropolitan county in the nation that does not have representation in the majority party in Congress.

Lawmakers in both parties have a huge stake in the process as they work to protect their districts from changes that could make them vulnerable or could force them into a race with another incumbent.

Members of Congress, at the mercy of the decisions of the Legislature, will also be working to influence the process; several longtime Democrats, including former Metroplex Rep. Martin Frost, lost re-election as a result of the DeLay-engineered plan of 2003.

Changing face of Texas

Shifting demographic patterns, including strong growth of Hispanic and African-American populations and declining growth of Anglos, will substantially shape the next redistricting. Texas has been a "majority-minority" state since 2004, meaning minorities have replaced Anglos as the majority. As of 2008, according to census data, Anglos constituted about 47 percent of the population; Latinos, 36.5 percent; African-Americans, 12 percent; Asians, 3.5 percent; and American Indians, less than 1 percent.

Hispanic groups, representing the state's fastest-growing segment of the population, are also waging a particularly visible campaign to create new Hispanic congressional and legislative districts as well as expand their presence in other districts.

"It's going to be a critical issue for the Latino population," said Frank Santos, executive director of the Austin-based Board of Hispanic Caucus Chairs, which represents the heads of Hispanic caucuses in state legislatures across the country.

Staff writer Aman Batheja contributed to this report.