Republican victories to give party a leg up in redistricting

Associated Press
Erie Times-News
October 26, 2010

WASHINGTON -- The Republicans' expected gains next week go way beyond Congress. The GOP could capture new Senate or House majorities in a dozen to 18 states -- along with critical new power to redraw district maps and influence elections for a decade to come.

Three of the biggest prizes are New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All three states are expected to lose seats in Congress as a result of the 2010 census, and that's sure to ignite boundary fights. A party's congressman on the wrong end of redistricting can find the district he's represented for years no longer exists.

Democrats have hopes, too. They aim to take away state Senate control in Michigan and Kentucky and the House in Texas and Tennessee. Texas would be a particular victory, since it seems likely to have four more seats to divvy up under the new census. But none of the analysts contacted by the Associated Press predicted the Democrats will succeed in any of those states.

Both houses in Florida, a state that's expected to gain two seats in Congress, are likely to remain under GOP control.

While most of the attention in next week's midterm elections is focused on races for Congress and governor, results in scores of local, down-ticket races carry far-reaching implications, likely to dilute Democrats' dominance in the once-every-10-years redrawing of political district boundaries for the U.S. House.

In most states, redistricting falls to the Legislature, which will draw new boundaries based on the 2010 census.

The party in control has a huge advantage and can draw district lines that could determine whether Republicans or Democrats dominate a state's congressional delegation for an entire decade, and possibly even control of the U.S. House itself.