Both sides see House control as grand prize - It's about more than controlling the state's legislative agenda. Both parties want a big say in redrawing Congress' districts next year.

Jan Murphy and Kari Andren
The Patriot-News
October 5, 2010

The battle for control of the state House of Representatives is on.

Republicans see nothing standing in the way of them regaining the majority after four years of Democratic control. If the GOP picks up at least three House seats on Nov. 2, Republicans will reclaim the majority.

Democrats, meanwhile, anticipate no scenario in which they lose the majority. For them, it's a matter of how many more seats they add to the 104 they now hold in that 203-seat chamber.

With one month to go before they find out who is right, leaders of both campaign operations say being in a position to control the legislative agenda in the House is the prize that matters most to them.

But House Democratic campaign operatives cite another reason they are anxious to retain their majority in the House. They want a seat at the table next year when the Legislature and governor tackle the once-in-a-decade task of redrawing congressional district boundaries.

Republicans are virtually assured that they have a say in that process. The GOP holds a 10-seat advantage in the 50-member state Senate. Republicans are virtually assured of retaining control of that chamber.

Democrats want to avoid a repeat of 2001, when Republicans dominated that redistricting process through their control of both legislative chambers and the governor's office. The GOP leaders established districts that Democrats have little to no chance of winning.

"If Republicans control all branches of government in 2011, then they will use redistricting like a political chainsaw and they will carve out anybody they don't like," said Mark Nevins, a Philadelphia-based Democratic consultant.

Political scientist G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster said that's not just a Republican tendency. Democrats would do the same thing if they had the chance.

One thing both parties agree on is gaining control of the House is worth the time and money being spent to make it happen.

"We will be going into a budget cycle with the greatest deficit in the history of the commonwealth where every issue and every program will be on the table. In addition to that, we have redistricting. Never before has there been a confluence of such important and significant issues," said Rep. Mike Gerber, D-Montgomery County, who chairs the House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Gerber said he is buoyed by polls and candidates' energy, fundraising and tales about voter reaction at campaign stops.

Citing similar evidence, Rep. Dave Reed, chairman of the House Republican Campaign Committee, expressed optimism that Election Day will end on a happy note for the GOP.

"We feel very good about where we're at," said Reed, R-Indiana County. "Our incumbents are very strong across the board. Certainly, a couple of them will be targeted along the way just as there will be a number of Democratic incumbents targeted. But we feel overall we're going to be back in the majority."

Reed sees no trouble ahead for midstate Republican incumbents. And he said he expects his party to retain the open 199th district House seat that Republican Will Gabig is vacating.

The GOP candidate, Stephen Bloom, a lawyer from North Middleton Twp., is running a strong campaign in that fairly conservative district, Republican political observers say.

But Democrats think they have a chance to claim that seat, which was last held by a Democrat in 1992.

Their candidate, Fred Baldwin, a longtime Carlisle School Board member, has an established record of public service that makes Democratic observers see this seat as their strongest pick-up opportunity in the midstate.

Gerber said he sees opportunities for his party to pick up at least nine Republican seats.

Democratic strategists said that along with the Gabig seat, they have their sights on the open seats now held by Republicans Karen Beyer in Lehigh County, Mario Civera in Delaware County and Sam Rohrer in Berks County.

They also are targeting what Gerber described as seats held by "vulnerable Republican incumbents embroiled in the Bonusgate scandals or [who] have shown themselves to be out-of-touch, right-wing Tea Party ideologues."

The House Republican campaign operation has money and people working in about 35 races, Reed said. That is about triple the number the committee is typically involved in at this point in the campaign, he said. That includes nine of the 10 open seats.

"We think each and every one of those districts [with open seats] could very well go Republican in November," Reed said.

The one open seat they are not looking at is the one held by retiring House Speaker Keith McCall in a largely Democratic district.

Political observers said the Republican wave sweeping the state and nation offers a boost to the GOP's candidates in legislative races.

"There's no doubt that the mood at the national level and President Obama has probably been a wonderful gift to the Republicans across the nation, but I also think there's frustration across the state with Gov. Rendell, too, particularly when you get out of the suburbs in the southeast," Reed said.

However, Democrats said voters' frustration is not only with their party, it's with government in general.

But that anti-incumbent feeling doesn't usually translate to legislative races. Democratic strategist Mary Isenhour said voters cast ballots based on the constituent services the incumbent provides and how well their legislator keeps them informed.

Certainly, Gerber said, that is the case with longtime Rep. Bill DeWeese, a Greene County Democrat who has been charged in the Capitol corruption probe being conducted by the state attorney general's office.

"What our polling shows is that despite some of the recent developments, Bill's district still has a great affection for their hometown boy," Gerber said.

For the same reason, Reed feels optimistic about Philadelphia Republican incumbent John Perzel's chances of getting re-elected. Perzel also faces charges of using state resources for political campaigns.

"John has always been very effective in representing his district and constituent services and certainly knows more than the average Joe about campaign and how to win elections," Reed said. "We believe John is going to be victorious."

Gaining control of the House is critical to both parties for one other reason, which that has to do with Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett and Democratic candidate Dan Onorato.

If Corbett gets elected and has a Republican-controlled Legislature, Madonna said, "he can largely make decisions without the involvement of the minority party."

If the House remains in Democratic control, it will mean no major issue gets done for Corbett without negotiation.

The same goes for Onorato, regardless of whether the Democrats win control of the House. The Senate is expected to remain a Republican stronghold. Still, Onorato would have a stronger negotiating position with a House controlled by his fellow Democrats.

While Madonna is predicting Republicans hold a slightly better chance of winning control of the House than Democrats, he said: "My guess is we will have two to three House members lose that we never thought about ... and they'll be some surprises. ... It could even be on the Republican side."

INFOBOX:
17

races for open state House seats

uncontested House incumbents

126

contested state House races*

races for open state Senate seats

uncontested Senate incumbents

contested Senate races*

* includes open seats