State legislators get ready to slice and dice **With the election over, it's time for the brass ring: redistricting.

John L. Micek
The Morning Call
November 4, 2010

HARRISBURG -- Let the number-crunching begin.

With Tuesday's elections out of the way, Republicans who now control state government can turn their attention to a real spoil of victory: the once-a-decade redrawing of Pennsylvania's legislative and congressional boundaries that starts next year.

"The General Assembly will have two or three huge tasks before it when it meets in 2011, and congressional redistricting will be one [of them]," said G. Terry Madonna, the veteran pollster and political analyst at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.

In Pennsylvania, congressional redistricting follows the same path as any piece of legislation. Lawmakers come up with a map that has to win the approval of the full House and Senate and then be signed into law by the governor -- in this case, Gov.-elect Tom Corbett. Republicans had a majority in the state Senate. Tuesday they added the state House and won the governor's office.

While it's too early to say how this Byzantine and intensely political process will play out, broad parameters already are emerging.

Because of population loss, the state's congressional delegation likely will shrink by one -- from 19 to 18 members. That means one incumbent will lose his job outright, or the seats of two incumbents will be merged, setting up a winner-take-all election. Because Republicans are in control, it's likely a sitting Democrat will be in the cross hairs.

In 2002, the last time the state redrew its congressional boundaries, the GOP was also in control. The seats of Democrat Tim Holden of Schuylkill County and Republican George Gekas of Dauphin County were merged into a newly reconfigured 17th Congressional District.

GOP bosses redrew the seat with an eye toward retiring Holden. They didn't get their wish. The former Schuylkill County sheriff defeated Gekas and has cruised to re-election ever since. The 17th District now includes parts of Berks, Dauphin, Lebanon and Schuylkill counties.

Rep. Sam Smith, R-Jefferson, who is expected to be elected the new state House speaker in January, said Wednesday that Republicans want to come up with a "fair and acceptable" map that will win legislative approval.

In 2002, Republicans made marginal adjustments to all congressional districts in an attempt to protect their own. But that backfired in the case of Gekas and later for others swamped by a 2006 wave of Democratic victories. This time, expect the GOP to shore up where it's strongest.

"Historically speaking, just because one party controls the lines doesn't mean they control the elections," said Mark Nevins, a Democratic consultant from Philadelphia. "In 2002, the Republicans controlled [redistricting]. They sliced the salami a little too thin and put their members in jeopardy."

Analyst Madonna said Republicans will resist that urge in the new round of redistricting and formulate a congressional map that "protects their 12 incumbents."

The redrawing of legislative districts follows a slightly different path.

There, a five-member commission is in charge of slicing and dicing the state's 203 House seats and the 50-seat state Senate. Its membership comes from the state House and Senate leadership, and includes one member of the public.

The new districts the commission draws are intended to reflect population shifts within the state. And, as is the case with the congressional seats, it's too early to tell which incumbents might be squeezed.

The Lehigh Valley's state House seats were largely spared in the last legislative redraw. But Democrat Lisa Boscola's 18th Senate District went under the knife.

The city of Easton was sliced out of Boscola's seat and merged into a rejiggered 24th Senate District, which stretched an arthritic finger through Montgomery and Bucks counties and into the Lehigh Valley. That seat is now held by Republican Bob Mensch, who won re-election Tuesday.

Government reformers have long complained that the once-a-decade redrawing of congressional and legislative maps is too political and yields districts designed to protect incumbents.

Some have suggested scrapping the current process and replacing it with a citizens redistricting commission where voters, not politicians, would be in charge of making the mapping choices that will affect them for the next decade.