Murtha's 12th District seat could be eliminated in redistricting

Salena Zito
February 16, 2010

The person who serves the unexpired term of the late Rep. Jack Murtha could be the last to hold the 12th Congressional District seat, political experts say.

"You could envision it," said Erik Arneson, press secretary for state Senate Republicans, on the possibility of slow population growth eliminating the 12th District in 2011.

Murtha, who will be buried today near his hometown of Johnstown, died at age 77 of complications arising from gallbladder surgery. He served 36 years in Congress. His term expires at the end of this year.

Franklin & Marshall College political analyst G. Terry Madonna says Murtha's is the likely seat to be eliminated once Census Bureau figures confirm Pennsylvania's slow population growth.

"Odds are that district will get carved out," he said Monday.

Redistricting, the process of dividing up congressional seats, occurs every decade in some states because of population changes.

Pennsylvania is expected to be one of nine states to lose a congressional seat — Ohio would lose two — based on census estimates. The Keystone State is expected to send only 18 representatives to the House after 2010 Census results are used to redraw boundaries in 2011.

Democratic Party leaders say Murtha's widow, Joyce, has emerged as a leading contender for the seat, if she wants the job. Gov. Ed Rendell will call a special election shortly — likely on the May 18 statewide primary, in order to save money. Candidates from both parties have indicated interest.

Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia consultant for Democrats, said the biggest reason for the party to nominate Joyce Murtha is that the seat probably will disappear, especially if a Republican wins the governor's race and the GOP takes control of the state House and Senate.

"Then she is the logical choice," Ceisler said. "There is no reason any rational Democrat or Republican candidate, with all of the competitive seats in this state, should waste money or resources running for a seat that will probably be eliminated."

Whoever holds power in the state Legislature after November's election largely will determine how the lines are drawn.

"Essentially it's legislation that is treated like any other bill in the state," the Republicans' Arneson said of redistricting. "Whoever the new governor is in 2011 will need to sign it, effectively creating new districts."

Republicans hold a solid majority in the state Senate, and Democrats control a narrow margin in the state House. Rendell, a Democrat, leaves office next year after two terms.

Keystone College professor Jeff Brauer believes Republicans will retain legislative power in Pennsylvania.

"Since Pennsylvania will lose a congressional seat based on the upcoming census numbers, it makes perfect sense on their behalf to carve out the Murtha seat," Brauer said. "This way they can essentially concede the special election to the Democrats ... who would likely win anyway, knowing that the long-time Democratic lock on that seat will soon no longer exist."