Trying to Figure the Odds in New York's Redistricting

May 25, 2002

By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr. with RAYMOND HERNANDEZ

Negotiations over new Congressional districts intensified today after a federal court said it would impose its own plan unless the State Legislature acted soon. At the same time, Vice President Dick Cheney called the Republican leader of the State Senate to express worries about the lines the court has drawn.

How New York redraws its Congressional lines matters greatly to the national Republican Party and the Bush administration. The Republicans have a slim 11-seat majority in the House of Representatives and cannot afford to lose a seat here.

Because New York lost population compared to other states, the state must sacrifice 2 of its 31 Congressional districts. But the Republican majority in the Senate and the Democratic majority in the House have been deadlocked for months over how to do that.

Late Thursday, a panel of federal judges in Manhattan approved a plan drawn up by a court-appointed special master, Frederick Lacey, but said it was still "willing, indeed eager," to let state lawmakers create a fair plan of their own.

The judges did not set a firm deadline for lawmakers. As a practical matter, however, the Legislature must adopt a plan by late next week or accept the court's lines, because candidates must begin circulating petitions in early June, lawmakers said.

Earlier Thursday morning, Mr. Cheney telephoned the State Senate's majority leader, Joseph L. Bruno, and urged him to redouble his efforts to negotiate lines that would benefit Republican incumbents. "He was encouraging me to do the best that I could," Mr. Bruno said. For weeks, Mr. Bruno has maintained that the federal court's plan was not only fair but also better than many alternatives that the Assembly speaker, Sheldon Silver, a Democrat, had proposed in private talks.

Mr. Lacey's plan calls for two "fair fights" among incumbents.

One would pit Sherwood L. Boehlert, a Republican, against Maurice D. Hinchey, a Democrat, in a new district in eastern and central New York. Another would have Jack Quinn, a Republican, running against John J. LaFalce, a Democrat, in a Buffalo-based district.

Judging purely by voters' political party enrollment, Mr. Hinchey and Mr. Quinn would likely lose, preserving the balance of Republicans and Democrats. "The master's plan wasn't that bad," Senator Bruno said.

But Republicans in Washington are jittery about Mr. Lacey's plan and some of those worries have reached Mr. Cheney's ears. Indeed, some Republican strategists in Washington think that their party might lose two seats.

"These aren't really fair fights," one leading Republican strategist said. "The Quinn-LaFalce race tilts toward Mr. LaFalce, and the Hinchey-Boehlert race tilts toward Hinchey."

Senator Bruno disagrees. He said the court-approved plan would result in one loss for each party. He said he had told the vice president that, despite the caviling of many Republican members of Congress, there was no point in passing a legislative plan unless it was better for the party than the court's proposed boundaries.

"The master's plan inconveniences many people, but it doesn't endanger them," Mr. Bruno said of his Republican allies in Congress.

One representative said to be worried is Thomas M. Reynolds, an upstate New York Republican who has close ties to Republican House leaders. Mr. Reynolds's district just north of Buffalo would pick up the largely Democratic city of Niagara Falls.

Legislative aides said the negotiations had picked up steam over the last 24 hours and several plans were being considered.

Among them is a proposal that would, in essence, sacrifice a Hudson Valley Republican, Benjamin A. Gilman, and a Monroe County Democrat, Louise M. Slaughter, these aides said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

There are several ways it might be done, however, each with its own ripple effect, and other proposals are being floated as well, aides said.

"It's not easy," said one aide. "It's the worst of jigsaw puzzles."