After the census, it's 'pure politics' Georgia expects to get 14th U.S. House seat. GOP, Democrats look to gain upper hand in capturing post in 2012.

Bob Keefe
January 18, 2010

WASHINGTON

The 2010 census is just getting going in Georgia, but already, politics are pulsating around the once-a-decade population count that's expected to result in a hotly contested new congressional seat for the state.

In Atlanta, the state Democratic Party is encouraging its members to try and ensure all Georgians -- but especially Hispanics, African-Americans and other Democratic-friendly groups -- get counted.

In Washington, Republicans are keeping a close eye on how the Census Bureau administers the count, while GOP leaders in Atlanta are already planning to control the new congressional seat.

The primary purpose of the national census is to determine how to divvy up the 435 U.S. House seats to try and ensure equal representation in Congress.

Preliminary census estimates show the state grew by about 1.6 million residents since the last census, making Georgia among eight states expected to gain at least one congressional seat in 2012.

Based on population growth, the new congressional district -- which would be Georgia's 14th -- will likely be in north metro Atlanta.

Along with congressional districts, the census results will be used to redraw state legislative districts.

The political stakes are far-reaching.

The census "is not a political process," said Republican U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland of Coweta County. But "redistricting is absolutely, 100 percent pure politics."

As head of the National Republican Congressional Committee's redistricting committee, Westmoreland is traveling the country, meeting with state redistricting officials and watching out for Republican interests.

He's also in charge of a separate House Republican task force created to monitor the census after Obama administration officials suggested last year that the White House might take more control over census operations.

If a 14th congressional seat is added in northern metro Atlanta, it could be an opportunity for Democrats to balance Georgia's U.S. House representation at seven Democrats and seven Republicans.

"Depending on how the maps are drawn, it's a seat Democrats can compete for," said Matt Weyandt, executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia. "So it's very important to the party that the redistricting process is done fairly and that there's no funny business."

Redistricting also would give the state a 16th electoral vote -- something that would increase Georgia's importance in 2012 presidential election and beyond.

The political party that doesn't get what it wants through this round of redistricting may have to wait until after the next census in 2020 to try and change the state's political landscape, said University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock.

Since it's initially up to the party that controls the state Legislature to determine how a new congressional district is drawn, Republicans will be able to design the district to include as many predominantly Republican voting precincts as they can, Bullock said.

Republicans are already counting on the seat. "The Georgia Republican Party looks forward to adding more Republican members to the Georgia congressional delegation," Sue Everhart, chairman of the Georgia GOP, said in a statement.

For Democrats, redistricting makes the governor's race all the more important, since a Democratic governor could veto any redistricting plan the Republican Legislature is expected to submit in 2011.

Also factoring into the coming fray is the fact that Georgia, because of its segregationist past, is still covered by the 1965 Voting Rights Act that gives the U.S. Justice Department oversight over the state's voting procedures.

If the Justice Department, headed by a Democratic Obama appointee, sees anything it deems discriminatory in the way Republicans draw up redistricting maps, it could reject them.

The last time Georgia went through redistricting, after the 2000 census, the political fight was so contentious that a three-judge federal panel and the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately stepped in.

Those redistricting plans, spearheaded by then-Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes, are still considered by opponents and many voting rights experts as prime examples of blatant political gerrymandering.

Republicans, led in part by Westmoreland, ultimately won a legal fight over legislative districts. But they still complain about the odd, C-shaped 13th Congressional District encircling western metro Atlanta.

Democrats say the unusual shape of the district was necessary to ensure representation of communities with common interests.

"We all remember the 13th District being drawn by Roy Barnes and the [primarily Democratic] electorate it has -- it's ridiculous," said Chuck Efstration, chairman of the Gwinnett County Republican Party.

"I have nothing to do with deciding the boundaries of the new district," he said.

"But I can tell you if there's any portion in Gwinnett, we're going to do everything we can to make sure that seat is a Republican seat."

While both sides are positioning themselves for a political showdown, the real fight probably won't start until next year, when the census is complete and redistricting begins.

"The long knives come out once the data sets are in hand, and there will be some blood on the floor," said Bullock, the UGA political scientist. "Until then, it's all about preparation," he said.

States gaining and losing seats

Georgia is among eight states expected to gain at least one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives because of population increases likely to show up in the 2010 census*. The head count's most visible effect is reapportionment of the 435 congressional seats. Gains are expected in the South, Southwest and in Washington state; and losses are forecast in the Northeast, Midwest and Louisiana.

States gaining and losing seats

Source: U.S. Census, Polidata projections* Projections based on 2009 estimates, extended out to April 2010Source: U.S. Census, Polidata projections* Projections based on 2009 estimates, extended out to April 2010

The schedule

February-March: Census Bureau mails forms to all households.

May: Census workers begin visits to households that did not return census forms by mail.

Dec. 31: Census Bureau required to deliver counts to use for reapportionment.

Summer-fall 2011: A Georgia Legislature committee draws up new congressional districts.

Late 2011-early 2012: Georgia governor must approve or veto plans. Department of Justice also must approve plans.

Early-mid 2012: A three-judge panel could intervene to settle disputes.

November 2012: Elections held under new district boundaries.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, University of Georgia