Academic analysis: Redistricting Commission done good

Ventura County Star: Blogs (CA) - Thursday, January 5, 2012
Author: Timm Herdt

An analysis of the political district maps created by the Citizens Redistricting Commission done by UC San Diego political scientist Vladimir Kogan and Public Policy Institutue of California scholar Eric McGhee has determined that the commission did a good job of carrying out its mission. 

Among their conclusions: "There is little doubt that the maps produced by the CRC, and the process through which these plans came about, represented an important improvement on the Legislature-led redistricting of 2001. The new district boundaries kept more communities together and created more compact districts while at the same time increasing opportunities for minority representation. If these maps survive the coming referendum and legal challenges, they have the potential to modestly increase competition in California elections and the responsiveness of the legislative branch to changing voter preferences." 

The publication of study comes as the state Supreme Court prepares to hear oral arguments next week on the question of whether it should suspend implementation of the Senate district maps pending a possible vote next year on a Republican-led referendum to overturn them. 

Republicans worry that the new maps could lead to Democrats capturing a two-thirds majority in the Senate -- an development that the new analysis says in fact is likely. But the authors assert that attainment of a Democratic two-thirds majority would in fact be more likely under the existing maps. They note that Republicans have "overperformed," as three of their current members either represent districts with Democratic voter-registration advantages or won very narrow victories (Tony Strickland). 

"Had two of these three races turned out differently, the Democrats would already have a two-thirds majority," the analysis says. "The handwriting for Republicans has been on the wall for several years." 

In terms of competitive districts, Ventura County will become one of the key political battlegrounds in the state over the next 10 years. The analysis concludes that two of three congressional seats that include portions of the county will be competitive, one of the two Senate seats, and one of the three Assembly seats. 

It notes that the largest increases in competitive seats will be in the House of Representatives, where it concludes 12 of the 53 California districts will be competitive (meaning, by the authors' definition, that neither part ycould be expected to win in any given year by 10 percentage points or more). Because of the increased competitiveness, it notes that Democrats could gain about four seats next year -- but that those seats would be at risk in any year, such as 2010, in which Republicans perform well nationally. 

"Given the strong uncompetitive nature of the 2001 congressional plan, it seems unlikely that it is possible to draw any plan that increases competition among congressional seats without also advantaging the Democrats," the analysis says. 

"The new congressional plan is the most competitive of the three, so a good year for Democrats will probably allow them to pick up the seats they did not win before. 

Yet because these gains come from competitive seats, they could easily be lost again in a countervailing partisan tide. Greater competition brings opportunity, but also risk."