All eyes are on redistricting

Trent Benedetti
The Lompoc Record
January 27, 2011

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released the 2010 results. Not surprisingly, California was the most populous state, with just over 37 million residents counted.

While we did receive important information about the state population, the local data won’t be released until February and March.

A recently released study by Claremont McKenna College gives insight into the redistricting changes expected. Among other trends, California’s population center continues to shift inland — a movement that will likely require districts to shift inland as well.

With California’s new Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRC) now in charge of the state’s redistricting process, incumbent legislators will no longer be able to control the effects of regional changes through partisan gerrymandering, as happened in the last decade.

By law, each district must have equal or nearly equal population with all other districts of the same type — congressional, Assembly, Senate. The county supervisorial seats are outside the scope of the CRC.

The CRC is independent of legislative or partisan control. The commission is barred from considering the addresses of incumbents when determining district borders, and from favoring a political party, and it can ignore current district boundaries as it draws its new plans.

Since the 2000 census, the state has incurred large population shifts to the Central Valley and Inland Empire, thus necessitating a shift of congressional and legislative seats to those areas. The coastal regions, the traditional power centers of the state, are naturally reluctant to cede any power to the increasingly populous inland regions.

While the power may shift one or two congressional seats from Democrat to Republican, the current 34 congressional Democrats to 19 Republicans may not change much. However, more competitive races should result in districts that are less partisan, and move candidates more to the center.

Locally, the recent victory by Das Williams over Mike Stoker by a few percentage points may change with the CRC redistricting .

If the 35th Assembly District drops northern Ventura County and picks up northern Santa Barbara County, it is unlikely to have the 19 percentage-point Democrat registration edge that saw Williams victorious.

The 23rd Congressional District of incumbent Lois Capps is known to some as the “Ribbon of Shame” because it was stretched along the Pacific coast for over 200 miles, from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, to make it safe for the incumbent party.

This district is underpopulated by over 40,000 residents. So, expect the 23rd District and 24th District of Republican Elton Gallegly to be more competitive in the 2012 elections.

The biggest concern of North County conservatives is the makeup of the supervisorial districts. While lawsuits were threatened a decade ago by the lines that put the North County underpopulated, the new census results are sure to show even greater disparity.

The solution by the dominant South Coast interests to gerrymander the 3rd District, with Isla Vista and Vandenberg Air Force Base, creates an imbalance in election turnout. This is caused by students voting during the November runoff period and barely showing up in the June primary.

With Supervisor Doreen Farr chairing the Board of Supervisors this term, don’t expect her to vote for redistricting that removes Isla Vista from the 3rd District.

The redistricting process comes on the heals of Farr completing an expensive legal contest from the last election that saw her win by less than 1,000 votes, with a high UCSB student turnout that showed up during the election runoff.

While courts give great deference to legislative body decisions, look for someone to file a lawsuit if the board underpopulates the South Coast districts to dilute the one-person, one-vote rules of redistricting .

Trent Benedetti is a long-time local business owner and board member of Committee INC.