PROP. 14 UNLIKELY TO BE A POLITICAL FIX, EXPERTS SAY - A 'TOP TWO' BALLOT WON'T END PARTY GRIDLOCK AMONG LAWMAKERS

Denis C. Theriault
May 30, 2010

If you listen to its backers, Proposition 14 on the June 8 ballot is the panacea for California's ills -- a way to sidestep decades of partisan gridlock.

Those well-heeled backers -- including Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the state's business community -- say that by creating an "open" election system that advances the top two finishers in a political race regardless of party, Proposition 14 would provide moderates a path to Sacramento.

Opponents, however, see the measure as political poison that will deprive parties the right to elect their own standard-bearers and wreck smaller third parties.

But in a state where gerrymandering and fundraising are still a candidate's best friends, political observers who have studied Proposition 14's potential fallout say so-called top-two elections will likely provide neither rescue nor ruination. Instead, they say, true reform may have to wait for the work of a political redistricting panel that gets under way next year.

"It's certainly possible that it could have a modest effect in any given election," Eric McGhee of the Public Policy Institute of California said of open primaries. But "it's not going to dramatically change things."

Under a "top two" system, all candidates in a primary are placed on one ballot, and the two highest vote-getters move to a general election where no write-in votes are allowed. That could set up fall contests between, say, two Republicans or two Democrats.

Except for the presidential race, all federal and statewide elections would be affected.

Presently in California, candidates vie for their party's nomination in the primary and then take on other parties' champions in the fall. California briefly had a similar "blanket" primary in the 1990s, but it was ruled unconstitutional because it allowed nonparty voters to choose party nominees. Proposition 14 aims to get around that by essentially making party irrelevant when it comes to picking winners in the primary.

Both foes and supporters agree on some of the potential outcomes should Proposition 14 pass.

One is that campaigns will become more expensive, with candidates in the primary trying to reach twice as many voters. And in districts that currently lean heavily Democratic or Republican, general elections that are now cakewalks would become more competitive and require more cash.

The other certainty is that small parties, whose candidates have won local races but rarely across the state, would be decimated.

"You'll have two candidates backed by the corporations," said Christina Tobin, a Libertarian candidate for secretary of state and the creator of StopTopTwo.org. "Those are the people who are going to advance to the general election."

A report by the Center for Governmental Studies in Los Angeles suggested that between the two major parties, Democrats would be more likely to run toward the center. Republicans in safely red districts would be less inclined to become moderate, which might not do much to reduce Capitol gridlock.

"If there were as many Republicans affected, then you could see some real change," said Bob Stern, co-director of the center.

And both McGhee and Stern also said there were no guarantees partisan candidates wouldn't slip through, especially if one has more money to spend or if moderate candidates split up the vote.

Voters so far seem inclined to make the switch. A poll this month by McGhee's institute showed approval for Proposition 14 reaching 60 percent. Perhaps not coincidentally, the same survey found faith in California's elected leaders hovering near record lows and plenty of anxiety over the state's fiscal mess.

"It's a game-changer," said Republican Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, who as a state senator was key last year to Proposition 14's placement on the ballot. The agreement to do so, hatched in exchange for his vote on tax increases to cinch a long-delayed budget deal, earned the ire of rank-and-file Republicans and Democrats alike.

Maldonado is unfazed by the criticism, saying too many politicians currently are "accountable to party bosses, and that's why party bosses are really mad about this initiative."

He has a close ally in the governor, a fellow moderate who also has made few friends in the state's mainstream Republican ranks. Schwarzenegger has mobilized his political operation to fund and push the measure, and Silicon Valley CEOs, the state's chamber of commerce, health insurers and developers also have cut big checks.

The opposition is led by a broad coalition of the state's political parties. Tom Del Beccaro, a vice chairman of the state's Republican Party, acknowledged that opponents haven't spent anywhere near as much as the $5 million backers have raised.

But he worries that in runoff races between two members of the same party, voter participation will plummet -- even though most general elections in gerrymandered California already are aren't competitive.

Del Beccaro also echoed concerns about the fate of smaller parties. While some have suggested that's an excuse the major parties have deployed to keep the reins of influence, he cited the history books. After all, he noted, "the Republican Party once was a third party."

Contact Denis C. Theriault at 916-441-4651.