Redistricting battle could shift power

As the process of selecting an independent commission to redraw California's legislative districts gets under way, two rival groups are planning to ask voters to either eliminate the commission altogether or expand its reach into congressional districts as well. That could mean a very expensive political shootout later this year with national repercussions.

Charles T. Munger Jr., a wealthy Southern Californian whose father is billionaire financier Warren Buffett's partner, has already contributed more than $2 million to qualify a ballot measure to expand independent redistrictingto the state's congressional districts.

Given that level of financing, there's little doubt that the Munger measure will make the ballot. But there's a late-blooming rival that's been submitted to the attorney general's office that would erase Proposition 11, the 2008 ballot measure that created the independent commission, and return the power over drawing new districts after the 2010 census to the Legislature.

UCLA law professor Daniel Lowenstein, who wrote one of the ballot arguments against Proposition 11, is the ostensible author of the new proposal. But he acknowledges the real sponsors are Democratic congressmen, led by Howard Berman, and Berman's brother, Michael, the Democrats' top redistricting expert.

"It's Michael and Howard together," Lowenstein said.

Whether the Lowenstein-Berman measure can make it to the November ballot, however, is problematic. Once it gets its official title from the attorney general's office, proponents will have only two months to collect enough signatures to get it on the ballot. It could be done with a multimillion-dollar injection to hire professional signature gatherers, but timing will be tight.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and a coalition of political reform groups put Proposition 11 on the ballot, arguing that leaving redistricting in the hands of the Legislature is too self-serving.

They pointed to legislative redistricting after the 2000 census, which has been widely portrayed as a bipartisan gerrymander that fixed the party ownership of 120 legislative and 53 congressional districts and contributed to the Capitol's gridlock.

Schwarzenegger's group, however, excluded congressional districts from Proposition 11 because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other powerful members of the congressional delegation were threatening to spend many millions of dollars to oppose it.

The outcome of the conflict between the Munger measure and the Lowenstein-Berman proposal could have national fallout, especially if Republicans make significant gains in this year's congressional elections.

If the Democratic-controlled Legislature redraws the state's congressional districts, it's believed as many as a half-dozen seats could be shifted from Republican to Democratic hands. But if a commission does it, the impact would be much less.

Call The Bee's Dan Walters, (916) 321-1195. Back columns, www.sacbee.com/walters.