Fresno Co. evenly split politically

E.J. Schultz
February 11, 2010

Welcome to Fresno County -- swing county, California?

As the Democratic Party continues to close the voter registration gap with the Republican Party, the county is now more divided than almost every other county in the state, new voter registration statistics show.

But while Fresno County as a whole is split, the legislative and congressional districts that run through the county are decidedly partisan. Republicans still hold a firm grasp on voter registration in four districts that mostly cover the east side, while Democratic voters rule in five districts that run through central Fresno and reach the county's western edges.

Bottom line: Don't look for a major political shake-up this election season, analysts say.

"I can't see any of the state legislative districts or the congressional districts swinging to the other party because the registration statistics are pretty strong for [each] party," said Jeffrey Cummins, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno.

In Fresno County, the two parties are separated by just 639 registered voters, with Republicans clinging to a 41.20% to 41.03% edge, according to statewide voter registration figures published last week by the Secretary of State. The 0.17-point difference is by far the smallest margin among counties with more than 300,000 registered voters. Only San Diego County comes close, at 0.56.

Of all counties, only tiny Del Norte County in Northern California is more evenly divided than Fresno County.

The Democratic gains this year mirror the statewide trend: Democratic registration grew to 44.6% from 42.7% four years ago, while GOP registration fell to 30.8% from 34.7%. The figures are at odds with the national perception that Republican momentum is growing.

"All this talk about this great Republican tide certainly isn't found in California," said Tony Quinn, a political analyst and former GOP legislative aide.

But the biggest surge was made by those who don't identify with a political party. Decline-to-state registration grew to 20.2% from 18.2% four years ago. In Fresno County, however, independents are a lesser force: registration remained steady at about 11%.

"We tend to be more traditional in the Central Valley" and "less likely to go off and be an independent," said Fresno County Clerk Victor Salazar, the county's top election official.

Although Democrats have made gains, the county remains politically polarized, with Democrats mostly clustered in central Fresno and Republicans dominating the east county. Political boundaries, drawn by the Legislature to keep incumbents in power, largely follow this divide.

Consider the county's two largest Assembly Districts. In the 31st -- Independent Juan Arambula's seat, which includes downtown Fresno -- Democrats grew their advantage and now hold a 50% to 32% edge. In the 29th, which includes east Fresno and Clovis, Republicans lost a little bit of their lead, but still dominate by 47% to 35% in the district, currently held by Republican Mike Villines.

Similar patterns exist across the county, where nine of 10 legislative and congressional districts that pass through the county have voter registration gaps of at least 10 points. The most competitive seat, according to voter registration, is the 19th Congressional District, where Republicans hold a 43% to 37% edge in the seat held by the retiring George Radanovich.

Of course, voter registration is not always a sure-fire predictor.

In the 30th Assembly District -- which includes a portion of southwest Fresno County -- Democrats have long held a voter registration advantage, which now stands at 46% to 36%. But Republican Danny Gilmore won the seat in 2008. He's retiring this year, and the GOP is looking to hold on to the district, which includes portions of Tulare, Kings and Kern counties.

"It's a lot of conservative Democrats," said Quinn, the political analyst. "It's not a loyal Democratic district, and generally Republicans have done reasonably well there."

The political map could change some in 2011, when a newly formed citizens commission will take over redistricting responsibility from state lawmakers for state districts. The outcome is uncertain, but the smallest shifts could reverberate on Election Day.

For instance, if Arambula's 31st Assembly District shifted some into the fast-growing east side, it could bring in more Republican voters.

"That can give us some gain in the numbers," said APS Sidhu, chairman of the Fresno County Republican Party. But "it's very hard to say how it's going to go."

The reporter can be reached at eschultz@fresnobee.com or (916) 326-5541.
Caption: CHART - Primary: June 8 General: Nov. 2 Election 2010: Red vs. Blue Voter registration for Fresno County and political districts that pass through the county: Democrat Republican Fresno County 41.03% 41.20% 18th Congressional 49.3% 32.5% 19th Congressional 37.3% 43.1% 20th Congressional 51.3% 31.3% 21st Congressional 34.8% 46.6% 29th Assembly 35.3% 46.7% 30th Assembly 46.1% 36.1% 31st Assembly 50.4% 32.4% 14th Senate 34.2% 47.0% 16th Senate 50.4% 32.0% Source: California Secretary of State