Voters catch on to redistricting reform

Backers see more competitive state Senate, Assembly races

By James P. Sweeney

U-T SACRAMENTO BUREAU

November 9, 2008

SACRAMENTO

Maybe California voters finally figured it out, the purported wisdom of having someone other than legislators draw the districts in which they run for office.

More likely, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and a cast of good-government groups caught Democrats napping, or indifferent. They outspent and outhustled the Legislature's majority party for what looks to be an unlikely win for a redistricting reform measure similar to the five that failed before it.

Now Proposition 11 may be remembered as perhaps Schwarzenegger's crowning achievement, a constitutional amendment that could open the door to more substantive political reforms, political analysts said.

First it must survive the tedious tabulation of more than 2 million ballots cast in Tuesday's election that remain to be counted.

But the governor and other backers of the measure aren't waiting. They declared victory last week, based on a 100,000-vote margin out of more than 9 million ballots tallied so far.

"It has the potential to be the centerpiece of Schwarzenegger's legacy as governor," said Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist who directs the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.

Redistricting reform "doesn't fix the mess in Sacramento all by itself, but it creates the opportunity for some of these problems to be addressed," Schnur added.

Supporters say the change will lead to more competitive races in many districts.

Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book and another former GOP strategist, said the victory could generate momentum for a push for open primaries and perhaps another stab at campaign finance reform.

"If Proposition 11 had failed, it would have set back political reform I think for decades," Hoffenblum said. "Because it did pass, it's opened the gates to try to come up with further reforms."

Redistricting or reapportionment is the arcane process of redrawing political lines or district boundaries every 10 years to reflect population shifts.

Parties in power, like the Democrats who control the state Legislature, have long used the opportunity to increase their majorities through gerrymandering, the art of drawing odd-shaped districts to maximize the dominant party's voters.

Under the existing system, politicians "picked the voters" rather than vice versa, Schwarzenegger argued.

In 2000, California legislators designed a gerrymander that protected incumbents of both parties. As a result, just one legislative or congressional incumbent has been voted out of office in the eight years since.

"The great irony," Schnur said, "is that if there were more competitive districts this year, the Democrats almost certainly would have increased their ranks in the Assembly, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

"The only thing that protected Republican legislators in such a big Democratic year was the fact that the party agreed to gerrymandered districts."

Critics claim districts drawn to all but guarantee the election of one party's nominee have contributed to the partisanship and polarization in a Legislature that saw its public approval rating slip to a record low of 15 percent in a September Field Poll.

Incumbents, Hoffenblum said, "know regardless of what they do, and regardless of the popularity of the institution as a whole, they themselves are totally safe politically."

Proposition 11 will establish an independent, 14-member commission to redraw district boundaries for the state Assembly, Senate and Board of Equalization. Congressional districts were excluded at the insistence of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, who vowed to spend what it would take to defeat the measure if necessary. California congressional districts were included in past redistricting reform attempts.

Without Pelosi's help, opponents raised $1.4 million and were outspent by a nearly 10-1 ratio. Supporters raised $14 million.

"I think the reason it passed was that there was very little money spent against it," said Bob Stern, a public interest attorney and president of the Center for Governmental Studies in Los Angeles.

The campaign against Proposition 11 was run by Senate President Pro Tempore Don Perata, an Oakland Democrat who could not seek re-election this year because of term limits.

No pre-election poll had shown the measure even close to the necessary 50 percent support.

"We didn't miscalculate," Perata said. "Candidly, we couldn't get anyone interested."

Perata suggested that the effect of term limits may have softened the natural opposition to Proposition 11 because members that have to move on might not be interested in how the next set of districts are drawn.

"I've done these campaigns six times. This was the first time it was hard to get a pulse," Perata said.

Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, D-Los Angeles, said the measure was not a high priority for her. Incoming Senate President Pro Tempore Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, said he and other Senate Democrats support an independent redistricting commission, though he opposed Proposition 11.

Schwarzenegger's political committee poured nearly $3 million into the campaign. The initiative also was backed by Common Cause, AARP, the League of Women Voters and some prominent Democrats – former Gov. Gray Davis and Leon Panetta, former chief of staff to President Clinton.

With broad-based, bipartisan support and minimal opposition, a defeat of Proposition 11 would have doomed efforts to enact broader political reform, Hoffenblum said. Now he expects the governor to push ahead with an open-primary measure.

Open primaries, in which voters can cast ballots for any candidate, regardless of party affiliation, would have an even greater effect on the outcome of elections, Hoffenblum said.

"The next thing is open primaries," Schwarzenegger vowed during a late October rally in San Diego. "That's how we have to walk down that road and create the real change."

OVERVIEW

Background: Every 10 years, legislative political boundaries or districts are redrawn to reflect population changes. State legislators now control that process in what critics say is a conflict of interest.

What's changing: Voters backed an independent commission that will design new districts for the state Assembly, Senate and Board of Equalization.

The future: A victory in the long fight over redistricting is expected to inspire other political reforms.