Prop. 11: 'Power grab' a hard sell?

Posted by Jim Sanders

November 7, 2008

Opponents of Proposition 11 painted the redistricting measure as a partisan power grab by Republicans - but many of California's Democratic voters apparently didn't buy that argument.

More than half of the counties in which registered Democrats exceed Republicans voted in favor of the initiative. Proposition 11 passed in 14 of the Democratic counties, failed in 12, unofficial election results show.

Statewide, Proposition 11 is leading by a little more than 1 percentage point, roughly 102,000 votes, with nearly 3 million absentee or vote-by-mail ballots yet to be counted.

The measure would create a 14-member citizens commission to draw the state's legislative and Board of Equalization districts, beginning in 2011. Legislators would continue to draw congressional seats.

Proposition 11 passed in 32 of the state's 58 counties, although results in several conceivably could be reversed as the remaining uncounted ballots are processed.

The initiative passed in 18 of the 29 counties where Republicans exceed Democrats. Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and GOP donors helped to bankroll the Yes on 11 campaign, which was led by AARP, Common Cause and the League of Women Voters, among others.

Comparing results in Democratic vs. Republican counties provides a yardstick for analysis, but an inexact one, because it does not take into account independent voters, who comprise roughly 20 percent of voters statewide.

Democrats and Republicans are virtually tied in voter registration in San Diego, Trinity and Del Norte counties.

Eight of California's 10 most populous counties supported Proposition 11, but the state's largest county, Los Angeles, opposed the measure by 6 percentage points. San Francisco, a heavily Democratic county, rejected it by 33 percentage points.

Proposition 11 tallied well in capital-area counties, leading in Sacramento, Yolo, El Dorado and very narrowly in San Joaquin, pending final vote counts.

Yes on 11 outspent its opposition by more than 10 to 1, another potential factor in voting patterns.