Prop. 11 masks some 2012 Golden State races in uncertainty
By James B. Gerber , PolitickerCA.com Reporter
December 5, 2008
The passage of Prop. 11, the ballot initiative that transferred redistricting authority from elected officials to a commission of regular citizens, has had a profound effect on who is considering a run for office in 2012, say political observers.
"We have no idea what these assembly and senate districts are going to look like," Steve Frank, a Republican activist and consultant, said. "We might have massive dislocation of elected officials."
Republicans looking to run for office often come to Frank for advice. In the past, he would tell them to get a head start years before the election.
"I'd tell them to start going to all the local chamber of commerce meetings in their district, go to the city council and school board meetings, make friends with the political leadership and the editors and reporters in your district," Frank said.
With the future makeup of the districts up in the air, however, Frank tells prospective candidates to take a wait-and-see approach.
"The best you can do as a candidate is build yourself up as a leader," Frank said, "but you can't announce for any office for 2012 because you don't know what's going to be open."
Most people don't understand the ramifications of Prop. 11, Frank said.
"Everybody truly believes that there's a loophole in there somewhere that'll allow the legislature to make the final decision, but Prop. 11 is worded so that if the commission doesn't decide it goes to the courts."
Frank said the uncertainty will hurt Republicans and Democrats alike.
"The first step to the election is the nomination, so if you're not able to build a team and a foundation for that nomination fight you have a problem," Frank said. "The good news is that it's a level playing field. Everybody has the same problem. It's not a Republican problem, it's not a Democrat problem, it's a political problem strategically of how to build a team."
Everyone, that is, except those who have already run for office.
"The beneficiaries are those who ran for office in that district and those who are in nonpartisan elected office, such as school board members or district attorneys," Frank said. "These are the people who have the step up in 2012."
James B. Gerber is a PolitickerCA.com Reporter and can be reached via email at james.gerber@politickerca.com .