The "Real" Stupid Party In California

By Tony Quinn

August 20, 2008

I always thought the Republicans were the stupid party in California, but listening to Democratic arguments against Proposition 11, I've decided I may be wrong. Maybe the Democrats are the stupid party after all.

My Democratic friends complain they gave away too many safe seats to Republicans in the 2001 sweetheart gerrymander, and indeed they are right. Were there fewer safe seats, perhaps Democrats would have won two thirds of the legislature in 2004 (riding the John Kerry million plus vote margin) or maybe they could this year (Gee, do you think Obama might beat John "Drill, Drill, Drill" McCain by a big California margin?)

In 2000, the last year of the court-drawn 1990s plan, Al Gore's landslide gave the Democrats four more seats in Congress and two more in the Assembly (to 50, more than they have today). This decade has been one of wasted Democratic landslides, and no gains.

But I am sure the Democratic strategists have assured the party they will solve this problem by drawing a nice partisan gerrymander that will give them two thirds of the legislature and "solve" California budget impasses, if only Democratic leaders pour a lot of money into killing Proposition 11.

As the guy who was top GOP staffer the last time they tried this, in 1981, I'm here to tell you why it won't work. If Prop 11 fails, we will end up with a sweetheart gerrymander in 2011 and Democratic legislators yet unelected and staffers yet unborn will go through the agony to placating GOPers to find budget votes, as they have every year this decade.

Three things will happen. Panicked Republicans will do what they did in 1990 to prevent a partisan gerrymander in 1991 - nominate (and maybe elect) a moderate governor (remember Pete Wilson?). Instead of the usual unelectable right-winger, party bosses cleared the field for Wilson in 1990, and he stopped the Democrats from gerrymandering in 1991.

If that does not work, the second option is to refer the plan, as we did in 1981. After Republicans killed the 1981 Democratic gerrymander, in 1982 Democrats and Republicans settled on a sweetheart deal that remained in effect for the rest of the decade.

The third thing is what we did not do: hold up the budget until redistricting was settled. I was the hawk in GOP caucus meetings, telling my principals that we should not provide the votes to pass the 1981 budget (Jerry Brown was then governor) until we had a bipartisan redistricting deal. But they said that Willie assured them he would take care of everything. Well, Speaker Willie Brown did not take care of everything and we got screwed (and had to refer the 1981 plan).

The Assembly GOP caucus was kinder and gentler in those days and never held up the budget. They won't be so nice in 2011. Any Democrat who things you are going to get through a partisan gerrymander in 2011 can forget it. A long hot August will ensue and in the end a bipartisan gerrymander will emerge.

I am sure Bill Cavala and others will froth at the mouth that I am giving advice to Democrats (but after all Sitting Bull did give Custer advice to stay away from Little Big Horn). I don't really care if the Democrats elect two thirds, as they might well do under non-legislature redistricting. But I want them to get to two thirds the old fashioned way, by winning elections, and then being accountable to the voters. You get that with democratic (small "d") processes.

I was also a GOP staffer in 1973 when we spurred a sweetheart deal and pushed redistricting to the courts, and with Watergate the Democrats won two thirds of the legislature in 1974 and 1976. The Democrats have done just fine when they have had to go out and win elections. They might actually have two thirds today had Schwarzenegger's 2005 redistricting initiative passed and new seats been created in 2006.

Will the Democrats kill Proposition 11, and then give me the chance to say in 2011, I was right? They are the stupid party.

Republicans sit behind their Berlin Wall of gerrymandered districts, enjoying their one third lock on the legislature like the landed gentry of old England held their rotten boroughs. It would not hurt if Republicans legislators were actually answerable to the public, and it would not hurt the Democrats either.