Don't look for Nov. 5 stunners - Redistricting gives incumbents an edge

John Canalis and Mike Sprague
The Whittier Daily News
September 22, 2002

Voters interested in local contests for Congress and the Legislature may have trouble finding a, um, contest.

Thanks to redistricting, which carved single-party strongholds in the Whittier area and the rest of the state, those looking for competition in California may have to turn to baseball. "I don't see any real races out there," Cal State Long Beach political science Professor Paul Schmidt said of the Nov. 5 election.

Political scientists and elected officials statewide predict that voters will return all 50 of the state's sitting incumbents to office, including Gov. Gray Davis. Open seats are virtually guaranteed to favor candidates from one of the two major parties because of redistricting.

The recent reapportionment of California districts makes it all but certain that Democrats or Republicans will claim districts handcrafted for their constituencies. Just look at the seven Whittier-area races for the House of Representatives and the Legislature. In only two of them is any kind of contest even expected.

And in both … the 39th Congressional and 58th Assembly districts … Democrats are highly favored because of registration.

"I still think the conventional wisdom is that the party registrations makes it a Democratic seat," said Marsha Godwin, adjunct professor of political science at Cal State Long Beach in reference to the 39th District.

Lakewood attorney Linda Sanchez, a Democrat, hopes to join her sister, Loretta Sanchez, D-Garden Grove, in the House, but Republican Tim Escobar is getting support from national Republicans such as U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert.

Reapportionment, which follows Census data every decade, was controlled by the Democratic majority in the Legislature. The Democrats and Republicans negotiated the boundaries with their interests in mind.

"All of the districts are drawn to favor one party," said Godwin, a Whittier resident. "If you have an incumbent in office, the district boundaries were designed to protect him or her. Where you have open seats, you still have one party having the edge."

Redistricting was also economical, assuring that spending would be kept to a minimum in November races. Party faithful in California can send their campaign donations to other states, where it may make a difference.

"That was very much a calculation of ours, to have that money available to help in races around the country," said Rep. Howard Berman, D-North Hollywood, the point man of congressional Democrats on redistricting.

The March primary, rather than the Nov. 5 General Election, may have been the time for astute voters to back their choices.

"It sort of emphasizes something I teach in my classes around here: the important election was the primary," Schmidt said.

Nevertheless, democracy marches on, and voters will be asked to make choices come November. And despite registration numbers, election

Additionally, there are also four local ballot measures that could promise some suspense. Here's a look at some of the upcoming races affecting the Whittier area:

38th Congressional Incumbent Grace Napolitano, D-Santa Fe Springs, is taking on Montebello Republican Alex Burrola and Libertarian Al Cuperus of West Covina in a district where there are nearly three times as many Democrats as Republicans.

The winner will represent Industry, La Puente, Montebello, Norwalk, Pico Rivera, Pomona, Santa Fe Springs and a slim portion of Whittier.

39th Congressional