SJ VALLEY DEMOGRAPHICS THWART REDISTRICTING DEAL

Dan Walters
Modesto Bee
October 16, 2002

When Democratic and Republican politicians made their redistricting deal last year, they sought to fix the partisan ownership of 173 legislative and congressional seats in California.

They will be about 95 percent successful, but partisan rivalry is still alive in the San Joaquin Valley. The state's only truly contested congressional district, California's lone state Senate duel and three state Assembly contests worthy of the name are centered here. And because they are clustered, often overlapping, the two parties are pouring many millions of dollars into voter registration, mail voter and Election Day get-out-the-vote drives, plus massive television and direct mail advertising.

The regional centerpiece is the showdown between Democratic Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza and Republican state Sen. Dick Monteith for the seat now held by scandal-tinged Democratic Congressman Gary Condit. It's the only serious congressional race in the state, but its outcome could affect which party controls Congress.

That the San Joaquin Valley has become the state's major political battleground this year is not particularly surprising, if one looks at the region's fast-changing demographic and political profiles. Once solidly Democratic, the region has turned to the right in more recent years, with Republicans gaining voter strength and Democrats attempting to hold on to their districts. Rapid population growth from Bay Area commuters is one reason for the voter volatility.

Growth and the voter registration drives have already sharply altered the registration numbers contained in the 2001 redistricting plan, especially in the 17th Assembly District, where Democratic incumbent Barbara Matthews is battling Republican Brian McCabe.

Matthews' Democratic voter margin was 18 percentage points when the new district was drawn last year, but a fierce registration drive dropped it into single digits. Democrats countered with a voter drive of their own, bringing her margin back to about 10 points. Democrats have paid $10 or more a name to register voters in the region.

Beyond the Cardoza-Monteith faceoff, the biggest prize is Monteith's Senate district, which was reconfigured to become a Democratic seat. The 12th Senate District, which also includes the Salinas Valley, pits former Democratic Assemblyman Rusty Areias, most recently Gov. Davis' parks director, against Republican Jeff Denham. No one knows how much is being spent in the 12th, but since it's the only Senate race in the state, the sky's the limit.

Areias, with his legislative record and a history of personal financial problems, is an easier target, but Denham must overcome what is still a 10-point registration disadvantage and his reputation as a two-time political loser. Privately, Democrats say they would have been more concerned if former Assemblyman Peter Frusetta, defeated by Denham in the primary, had been the GOP candidate.

The 26th District, running along the west side of the valley, is another dueling field. Voter registration is almost even, which should make it, as designated, a Republican seat. If GOP turnout is low due to weakness at the top of the ticket, however, Republican Greg Aghazarian of Stockton could be ambushed by Modesto Democrat Tom Hallinan.