Redistricting will hold

The Oakland Tribune
October 31, 2002

THE notion behind last year's bipartisan redistricting agreement was to freeze the current margins of power in redrawing California's 173 legislative and congressional districts -- and the Nov. 5 election will certainly confirm that outcome.

The bipartisan deal assigned the putative partisan ownership of each district, swapping seats where necessary to preserve the numerical status quo.

And with 80 Assembly seats, 20 more in the Senate and 53 congressional districts on the ballot this year, the cartographers' intent will come true in at least 95 percent of the districts.

There's doubt about the outcome in only a handful -- fewer than 10 -- of the 153 districts.

That said, one is struck by an emerging aspect of this year's legislative and congressional elections in California: The dominant Democrats have almost no chances to gain on the GOP, but the underdog Republicans, with much less money, could stage as many as four or five upsets.

"Could" is the operative word, since nothing is guaranteed and the redistricting plan's intentions could be fully realized. But strategists for both sides, in reviewing the hottest spots, agree on the greater Republican upside potential.

And if the GOP gains even a couple of seats, it will be a huge symbolic lift for a party that could be swept in this year's statewide races.

Democrats, aware they could be embarrassed, are pouring millions of dollars into the districts with the closest races, such as the 30th Assembly District between Fresno and Bakersfield, the San Joaquin Valley's 17th Assembly District, the 78th Assembly District in San Diego County and the 80th Assembly District in the Coachella Valley.

The 80th is especially dicey for Democrats, despite being drawn specifically to favor a Latino Democrat. Democrat Joey Acuna Jr. has, Capitol handicappers say, proven to be a lackluster candidate while Republican foe Bonnie Garcia enjoys the patronage of her former boss, Sen. Jim Battin, R-Palm Desert, who has made her election a personal cause.

Assembly Democrats, meanwhile, have just one opportunity to gain on Republicans, in the Contra Costa County-centered 15th District.

It's intended to be the sole remaining GOP legislative or congressional seat in the San Francisco Bay Area, but Democrat Donna Gerber, a Contra Costa County supervisor, is running neck-and-neck with Republican businessman Guy Houston. Growth is the big issue.

If, in fact, Democrats lose a couple of Assembly seats, it could imperil Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson, who is making his maiden electoral voyage as Democratic leader and who shouldn't be losing anything, given his huge advantage in financing.

Democrats are also on the defensive in the only real state Senate contest.

The 12th District, which runs from the Salinas Valley to the upper San Joaquin Valley, is supposed to be Democratic but Democrat Rusty Areias, a former assemblyman who has been Gov. Gray Davis' parks director, has a tough Republican foe in Jeff Denham.

With nowhere else to spend their money, state Senate leaders of both parties are pouring millions of dollars into television and radio spots, billboards and direct mail appeals.

Seemingly, the only congressional district in play is the Democrat-designated 18th, centered in the upper San Joaquin Valley between Fresno and Stockton. Democratic Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza and Republican state Sen. Dick Monteith are vying for the seat of scandal-tainted Democrat Gary Condit.

Meanwhile, however, another congressional barnburner has developed -- albeit with scant media attention -- in the oddly shaped 23rd District, which runs along about 150 miles of Central Coast, from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, but is only a few miles, at most, wide.

It was drawn to maximize Democrat Lois Capps' chances of winning re-election, but Republican businesswoman Beth Rogers, member of a pioneer family and a pro-choice moderate, is a well-financed and dynamic challenger. Rogers is mounting a heavy TV ad appeal to Latino voters, taking advantage of her fluency in Spanish, and Democrats are worried that she could peel away enough Latino votes to threaten Capps, a pedestrian campaigner.

Dan Walters writes for the Sacramento Bee. E-mail: dwalters@sacbee.com .