Competitive races exist only on fringe of Bay Area - Redistricting has turned GOP and Democratic strongholds into impregnable fortresses

Steve Geissinger
San Mateo County Times
October 19, 2002

SACRAMENTO -- Though nearly all of this fall's congressional and state legislative races in California were scripted last year during political redistricting, candidates are waging three true slugfests on the eastern fringes of the Bay Area.

The battle that culminates Nov. 5 over the open 18th Congressional District seat in the San Joaquin Valley, which Democratic Rep. Gary Condit lost after getting caught up in the Chandra Levy scandal, carries the highest stakes of the three.

Democrat Dennis Cardoza of Atwater and Republican Dick Monteith of Modesto are locked in a general-election contest that could determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

Nearby, the fate of one of the Bay Area's last remaining GOP strongholds hangs in the balance in the 15th Assembly District, which includes parts of Alameda, Contra Costa and San Joaquin counties.

Democrat Donna Gerber of Danville and Republican Guy Houston of San Ramon are running a close race to succeed termed-out GOP Assemblywoman Lynne Leach of Walnut Creek.

Over the mountains, in San Joaquin County, Democrat Barbara Matthews of Tracy faces the toughest fight of any Assembly incumbent this year as she tries to defeat Republican challenger Brian McCabe of Merced in the 17th Assembly District seat.

Though Democrats hold a small advantage in voter registration, Republicans believe Matthews is vulnerable because she cast a deciding vote to let the state into the power-buying business during the energy crisis and sided with her caucus in passing a budget that triggered a sales-tax increase.

But despite the outcome of those two area Assembly races and a handful of other competitive legislative races elsewhere in California, Democrats will remain firmly in the majority when the 2003 state Legislature convenes on Dec. 2, according to analysts and political strategists.

Lawmakers redrawing their districts last year to reflect population changes revealed by the 2000 census shored up the current partisan lineups in the state Senate and Assembly. The Nov. 5 election is likely to shift those tallies only slightly, at most.

"If I was a betting man, I'd say it (the legislative election outcome) would be basically the status quo," said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher and coeditor of "The California Target Book," an analysis of legislative and congressional races.

Democrats now hold 50 of the 80 Assembly seats and 26 of the 40 Senate seats. Despite those advantages and the presence of Democrat Gray Davis in the governor's office, Democrats decided to strengthen their hold on the number of seats they have now rather than try to add any.

Even when forced open by voter-approved term limits, seats are still safe for the incumbent political party because districts were redrawn to be even more solidly Republican or Democratic.

The strategy sidestepped court and ballot battles with Republicans over the new districts. It also eroded any chances the GOP would make big gains in November, even though the ballot bears all 80 Assembly seats, with their two-year terms, and half the Senate's 40 seats, with their four-year terms.

Analysts say the two incumbent Democratic state senators running for re-election in the liberal Bay Area are shoo-ins -- Jackie Speier of Daly City in the 8th Senate District, over her GOP challenger, attorney Dennis Zell of Burlingame; and Liz Figueroa of Fremont in the 10th Senate District, over her GOP challenger, Alameda County Water District director James Gunther of Fremont.

Educator Loni Hancock of Berkeley in the 14th Assembly District, who is running unopposed to succeed termed-out Democratic Assemblywoman Dion Aroner of Berkeley.

Incumbent Assemblywoman Wilma Chan of Alameda in the 16th Assembly District, over her GOP challenger, retired surgeon George Nugent of Piedmont.

Incumbent Assemblywoman Ellen Corbett of San Leandro in the 18th Assembly District, over her GOP challenger, nuclear engineer Jack Hovingh of Pleasanton.

South San Francisco City Council member Gene Mullin in the 19th Assembly District, over his GOP challenger, telecommunications repair technician David Kawas of San Bruno, to succeed termed-out Assemblyman Lou Papan of Millbrae.

Incumbent Assemblyman John Dutra of Fremont in the 20th Assembly District, over his GOP challenger, technology sales executive Daniel Dow of Newark.

Incumbent Assemblyman Joe Simitian of Palo Alto in the 21st Assembly District, over his GOP challenger, high school principal Jim Russell of Los Gatos.

Of the three closely contested races on the eastern fringes of the Bay Area, it's the battle over the 18th Congressional District that is drawing national attention because it could determine which party controls the House next year.

Although all 435 House seats are up for election, only the 18th Congressional District race and some 39 others outside California are considered truly competitive.

If Republicans hang on to their narrow majority, Bush will retain the power to move much of his agenda through Congress in the second half of his term, even if Democrats keep the U.S. Senate.

But if Democrats win the six additional seats they need to take the House, while retaining the U.S. Senate, the party can seize the legislative offensive.

Neither of California's U.S. Senate seats is up for re-election this year and most House incumbents from the Bay Area are running for re-election in districts that are safe. Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey of Petaluma in the 6th Congressional District, over her GOP challenger, small businessman Paul Erickson of Santa Rosa.

Democratic Rep. George Miller of Concord in the 7th Congressional District, over his GOP challenger, housing finance officer Charles Hargrave of San Pablo.

Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland in the 9th Congressional District, over her GOP challenger, financial economist Jerald Udinsky of Berkeley.

Democratic Rep. Ellen Tauscher of Walnut Creek in the 10th Congressional District, who is unopposed by a Republican.

Republican Rep. Richard Pombo of Tracy in the 11th Congressional District, over his Democratic challenger, business lawyer Elaine Shaw of Pleasanton.

Democratic Rep. Tom Lantos of Burlingame in the 12th Congressional District, over his GOP challenger, small businessman Michael Moloney of Burlingame.

Democratic Rep. Pete Stark of Fremont in the 13th Congressional District, over his GOP challenger, business consultant Syed Mahmood of Union City.

Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo of Palo Alto in the 14th Congressional District, over her GOP challenger, businessman Joe Nixon of Bonny Doon.

18th Congressional District

Condit, who now represents the 18th Congressional District that stretches from Stockton, south to Modesto, Merced and Los Banos, lost the March primary to Cardoza, a fellow Democrat, after getting caught up in the scandal surrounding the disappearance and death of Levy, a 24-year-old federal intern.

Cardoza, a state assemblyman, is locked in a tight race with Monteith, a Republican state senator, in a reshaped district where Democrats now hold only a 6-point registration advantage (47 percent to 41 percent).

Major figures from both parties have put in appearances, given the potential role the outcome could play in control of the House.

Combined campaign contributions in the race have passed the $2 million mark, with Cardoza raising the most -- more than $1.2 million. Much of it has gone into voter registration and get-out-the-vote drives.

Each candidate has portrayed the other as being too extreme for a middle-of-the-road district, though analysts say the candidates are not that far apart on many policy issues.

In one of the most sensitive aspects of the campaign, Monteith has touted his support of President Bush, who is very popular in the region, while Cardoza has avoided joining Democratic critics of Bush's quest to oust Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

15th Assembly District

Gerber, a Democrat and Contra Costa County supervisor, is battling Houston, a Republican and a former mayor of Dublin, to succeed Leach, a termed-out Republican, in the 15th Assembly District.

The only Assembly district in the Bay Area with a Republican majority (44 percent to 38 percent), it is largely based in Contra Costa County, but extends into parts of Alameda, San Joaquin and Sacramento counties.

The district now stretches from just south of Sacramento to portions of Tracy and the suburbs south of San Ramon. Included in the district are Walnut Creek, Livermore, San Ramon and parts of Pleasanton.

During redistricting, the cities of Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga and Dublin were carved out of the district, prompting Houston to move from Dublin to San Ramon so he could qualify as a candidate.

Though the candidates have clashed on a wide range of issues, growth is arguably the hottest topic in the race to represent the increasingly populous region.

Houston says his top priority would be to find ways the state can invest in roads, water systems and other infrastructure while Gerber says she wants to forge a statewide smart-growth plan.

Gerber and Houston have raised hundreds of thousands of dollars but labor, environmental groups, development interests and political parties are expected to inject additional

millions of dollars in independent expenditures into the campaign.

17th Assembly District

Matthews, a Democratic incumbent and former Tracy City Council member, is trying to fend off McCabe, her Republican challenger and a Merced attorney, in the 17th Assembly District.

The district, which leans Democratic, takes in more than a third of San Joaquin County, all of Merced County and a tiny portion of western Stanislaus County.

Much of the battle has centered on voter registration.

The incumbent's voter margin was 18 percentage points when the new district was drawn last year, but a vigorous GOP registration drive dropped it into single digits. Then Democrats countered with a voter drive of their own, bringing Matthews' margin back to about 10 points.

Although Democrats are concerned over GOP criticism of Matthews' votes on the budget and energy crisis, they see her as a strong incumbent who fits the district profile. She is stressing economic and education issues in her campaign.

McCabe is campaigning as a tax foe, promising to focus on education, agriculture, water and transportation.

The hundreds of thousands raised by the candidates tell only part of the story, with the two parties pumping in additional millions of dollars in an effort to win the district.