REDRAWN DISTRICTS LEAVE LITTLE IN DOUBT - ONLY SIX CALIFORNIA RACES FOR THE LEGISLATURE AND CONGRESS ARE CLOSE, EXPERTS SAY LINES WERE SET TO PROTECT PARTY IN OFFICE

Jack Chang
Contra Costa Times
November 2, 2002

Competitive races in california

Congressional District 18

Area: Central Valley

Candidates: Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza, D-Turlock; State Sen. Dick Monteith, R-Modesto

State Senate District 12

Area: Salinas and Central valleys

Candidates: Former Assemblyman Rusty Areias, Democrat; Jeff Denham, Republican; David Eaton, Libertarian

Assembly District 15

Area: Parts of Tri-Valley and eastern Contra Costa County

Candidates: Contra Costa County Supervisor Donna Gerber, Democrat; former Dublin Mayor Guy Houston, Republican

Assembly District 17

Area: Central Valley

Candidates: Incumbent Assemblywoman Barbara Matthews, D-Stockton; Brian McCabe, Republican

Assembly District 78

Area: San Diego County

Candidates: Vince Hall, Democrat; Chula Vista Mayor Shirley Horton, Republican; Mark Menanno, Libertarian

Assembly District 80

Area: Coachella Valley

Candidates: Joey Acuna, Jr. Democrat; Bonnie Garcia, Republican

When voters go to the polls Tuesday, they'll encounter a seemingly endless array of candidates, from city council to governor, yet something will be missing.

In whole sections of the ballot, they'll find virtually no drama about who will win and lose.

Among the 80 state contested Assembly seats, four are competitive this year, according to political consultants from both parties.

Similarly, both parties believe only one seat among the state's 53 congressional races holds any drama and only because of outgoing Rep. Gary Condit's brush with tabloid infamy. Likewise, the major parties are watching only one of 20 state Senate races.

To be sure, some uncertainty lingers over who will be the next governor, and the fate of propositions addressing everything from affordable housing to after-school programs remains uncertain.

But state and federal lawmakers preordained the outcomes for much of the ballot before a single candidate shook a single hand, consultants for both parties said.

"This was done by design," said Richard Temple, a political consultant for statewide Republican candidates. "It has to do with a thing that voters don't understand: The districts were locked into the status quo."

the Democratic-controlled state Legislature sealed the fate of most congressional, state Senate and Assembly districts last year when it redrew district boundaries based on new census figures. In redrawing the districts, the major parties paid close attention to voter-registration figures to ensure that Democratic and Republican strongholds remained intact, giving incumbent officeholders an edge in the upcoming elections.

For candidates such as Republican Jerald Udinsky who is running a non-race against Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Oakland, the arrangement represents an undermining of the democratic process.

"It's a derogation of democracy," the Oakland resident said. "It's based upon screwing up any debate that might go on, but this debate is what democracy is all about, this balance of power."

Democrats hold a 63 percent to 11 percent advantage over Republicans registered in Lee's 9th District.

Enjoying a comfortable majority in Sacramento, Democratic leaders sought to protect all incumbents, regardless of party, and to hold onto power. Republican decisionmakers in Washington wanted to protect their advantage in Congress and agreed to the plan, fearful they might otherwise lose some precious House of Representatives seats from California.

So a deal was struck, and a plan was drawn. Almost every congressional and legislative district was drawn to protect the party of the incumbent officeholder.

In past years and in other states, court challenges to district lines have brought in judges or other nonpartisan people to draw boundaries, which created more geographically sensible and politically competitive districts, Temple sad.

Overcoming the long-shot odds created by redistricting has been the chief task of Democrat Elaine Shaw in challenging Rep. Richard Pombo, R-Tracy, for the 11th Congressional seat, said Shaw's campaign manager Evan Jacobs. The 11th encompasses much of the San Ramon, Livermore, Amador and Central valleys.

Pombo has a Republican Party registration advantage of 9 percentage points and wields the power of incumbency.

That hasn't stopped Jacobs and Shaw from trying to convince anyone who will listen -- Democratic Party officials, the media and, or course, the voting public -- that Pombo is vulnerable, and that Shaw is a credible candidate with a chance to win.

"I would certainly say we are the second most competitive race in California," Jacobs said. The fight for Condit's seat ranks first. "We base that judgment on the support we are getting from inside and outside the district, on poll numbers and on what we see in the media."

Pombo's spokesman did not respond to messages left this week at his office in Washington, D.C.

To some degree, Shaw has succeeded in making her case.

Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman said Pombo's seat was not in any grave danger but added: "It's more competitive than Mr. Pombo would have expected."

By mid-October, Shaw had spent about $440,000 on her campaign -- much of it her own money -- which is about half of Pombo's expenditures but still a substantial effort.

Support from a political party's state or national committee is crucial to the hopes of any candidate trying to upset the odds to steal a safe seat from an incumbent, Kaufman said.

"Unless you get pretty decent interest from the party, a campaign's not going to be well-funded, and there will not be any media attention," she said.

On that score, the Democrats have largely ignored Shaw, giving her only $5,000.

Pombo has received support from Republican royalty such as Vice President Dick Cheney who helped the Tracy native raise $300,000 in February.

The difference party support and incumbency make in a contest has been dramatized over the past few weeks in the race for the 15th Assembly seat, where Contra Costa County Supervisor Donna Gerber is battling former Dublin Mayor Guy Houston.

Like Shaw, Gerber is trying to win in a district where Republicans hold a registration edge -- in this case, 6 percentage points.

She enjoys two things Shaw doesn't: The Democratic Party has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into her campaign, and her opponent isn't an incumbent.

Additionally, Democratic legislators with Republican cooperation purposefully redrew the district to exclude Houston's home turf of Dublin.

The end result: The Gerber-Houston matchup is perhaps the most competitive Assembly race in the state.

Such hot races are the rare exception.

The ingredients for most races don't change much: A protected incumbent, a frustrated challenger and an uneven playing field, creating a scenario that goes against the public interest, consultants from both parties agree, because it gives voters even fewer reasons to show up on Election Day.

Secretary of State Bill Jones predicts voter turnout on Tuesday will approach record lows hit statewide in 1998.

Temple suggested some optimistic reads of the situation. Perhaps voters are content with their representatives and the lack of drama is a tacit nod of approval, he said. Or perhaps the real battles increasingly occur during primaries when each party chooses its candidates.

But this can't be growing voter enthusiasm for the democratic process, he said.

"The end result is there's no competition in these seats, and there's no interest because there's no competition."