PARTIES PROTECT THEIR OWN - POLITICS: DON'T EXPECT TOO MANY CHANGES IN NOV., THANKS TO REDISTRICTING.

John Canalis
Long Beach Press-Telegram
September 23, 2002

Voters interested in local contests for Congress and the Legislature this year may have trouble finding a ... well, contest.

Thanks to redistricting, which carved single-party strongholds in and around Long Beach and the rest of the state, those looking for competition in California may have to turn to baseball.

``I don't see any real races out there,'' Cal State Long Beach political science professor Paul Schmidt said of the Nov. 5 election.

Political scientists and elected officials statewide predict that voters will return all 50 of the state's sitting incumbents to office, including Gov. Gray Davis.

The recent reapportionment of California districts makes it all but certain that Democrats or Republicans will claim districts handcrafted for their constituencies.

Just look at Long Beach area races for the House of Representatives and the Legislature.

An easy win, for example, is expected for Lakewood attorney Linda Sanchez, who is running in the heavily Democratic 39th Congressional District. She hopes to join her sister, Loretta Sanchez, D-Garden Grove, in the House.

But redistricting creates a challenge for Long Beach Democrat Gerrie Schipske, who is now running in suddenly unfriendly territory: the majority Republican 46th Congressional District. She previously ran in moderate-leaning areas that elected the likes of Rep. Steve Horn, R-Long Beach.

Now she is given little chance to beat GOP stalwart Rep. Dana Rohrabacher.

Gary Jacobson, a political science professor at UC San Diego, said the voting history and party registration numbers in the new district give Schipske ``no dream of knocking off Rohrabacher.''

Reapportionment, which follows U.S. Census data every decade, was controlled by the Democratic majority in the state Legislature. The Democrats and Republicans negotiated the boundaries with their interests in mind.

``It was partially designed so individuals and parties could prevail,'' Schmidt said.

Redistricting was also economical, assuring that spending would be kept to a minimum in November races. Party faithful in Califor- nia can send their campaign donations to other states, where it may make a difference.

``That was very much a calculation of ours, to have that money available to help in races around the country,'' said Rep. Howard Berman, D-North Hollywood, the point man of congressional Democrats on redistricting.

The March primary, rather than the Nov. 5 general election, may have been the time for astute voters to back their choices.

To borrow sentiment from sports fans, it made more sense to pay attention to the Lakers' tough Western Conference Finals series against the Sacramento Kings last season than it did to watch the less competitive NBA Finals against the weaker New Jersey Nets.

``It sort of emphasizes something I teach in my classes around here: The important election was the primary,'' Schmidt said.

Nevertheless, democracy marches on, and voters in sections of Cerritos, Lakewood, Long Beach and Southeast Los Angeles County and West Orange County will be asked to make choices come November.

And despite registration numbers, elections routinely deal a surprise, or two. Janet Reno learned something about that last week when the former attorney general was beaten by political neophyte Bill McBride for the Democratic nomination for governor in Florida.

Additionally, there are also a few municipal contests, which are nonpartisan, and promise some suspense.

Los Alamitos and Downey residents will select city council members. Signal Hill will decide whether to keep electing a city treasurer or pass the duties on to a city administrator.

Compton Community College District seats are up for grabs. And Long Beach voters will decide two referendums -- one on parks commissioners, the other on city contracting policies -- to name a few.

Here's a look at some of the upcoming races affecting the Long Beach and Southeast area:

36th Congressional

Incumbent Rep. Jane Harman, D-Torrance, is all but guaranteed another term in the 36th District that spans parts of Carson, Lomita and San Pedro.

She faces a challenge from political newcomer Stuart Johnson, a young Republican attorney from Manhattan Beach, and Libertarian Mark McSpadden, a management consultant from San Pedro.

37th Congressional

Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald, D-Carson, is likely to win in her newly redrawn district, which now includes much of Long Beach, Carson and Compton, if voters punch ballots along party lines.

She beat perennial candidate Peter Mathews in the primary and is expected to dispatch Republican accountant Oscar Velasco of Long Beach and Libertarian Herb Peters of Carson come November.

38th Congressional

Norwalk Rep. Grace F. Napolitano, a Democrat, is taking on Montebello Republican Alex Burrola and Libertarian Al Cuperus in a district where there are nearly three times as many Democrats as Republicans.

The winner will represent City of Industry, La Puente, Montebello, Norwalk, Pico Rivera, Pomona, Santa Fe Springs and other parts of Southeastern Los Angeles County.

39th Congressional

The 39th Congressional District primary drew plenty of attention in March, both for the chances of writing history and an inordinate amount of mudslinging.

Lakewood Democrat Linda Sanchez, the sister of Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Garden Grove, beat five better-known Democrats in March.

If she and Loretta Sanchez win in November, Congress will have two sisters in office simultaneously for the first time.

The 39th is dominated by Democrats, so Sanchez is expected to beat La Mirada Republican Tim Escobar, who recently won the endorsement of House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill.

Escobar has also won the endorsement of some Democrats, but faces an uphill battle since there are 132,238 Democrats and 67,519 Republicans in the district.

``I think, in this particular climate, it would be a challenge (for Escobar to win),'' said Schmidt. ``I think it was proven in the primary that Linda Sanchez has a lot of star-power help and actually knows how to run a campaign.''

46th Congressional

Redistricting does not appear to favor Long Beach Democrat Gerrie Schipske, who is up against Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach. Schipske had done well against Rep. Steve Horn, R-Long Beach, once coming within 1,700 votes of beating him.

But redistricting has placed Schipske's East Long Beach ZIP code in a district now dominated by Republican-strong sections of Orange County.

``Last time, we actually raised money, in spite of assessments that we couldn't win,'' Schipske said.

But now party leaders have directed donors to give money to other candidates, which makes it tough for her to raise funds, she said.

Despite Schipske's problem, Jacobson, the UCSD professor, said both parties were served by California's redistricting.

``The Democrats thought they had maxed out on what they could get and keep. Republicans -- since Democrats had full control of the process -- thought they'd get hurt even worse,'' he said.

When asked if Schipske may be able to count on enough votes from Long Beach to offset Rohrabacher's support in Orange County, Schmidt said, ``In a word, no. I don't see that.''

``The district is tailor-made for the lifetime of Dana Rohrabacher,'' he said, adding that Schipske lost to Republican Horn even though the district was majorityDemocratic.

30th state Senate

Norwalk Rep. Martha M. Escutia, a Democrat, appears to have a lock on her bid to return to the state Senate's 30th District, which spans much of the Southeastern Los Angeles County.

In the largely Latino, Democratic stronghold, she faces Republican John O. Robertson, an engineer and teacher from Cudahy.

50th Assembly

Voters in the 50th Assembly District that spans Bell, Bell Gardens, Bellflower, Commerce, Cudahy, Downey, Lynwood and South Gate are expected to return Assemblyman Marco Antonio Firebaugh, a Democrat, to office.

The South Gate incumbent is going up against Republican Gladys O. Miller, a government employee, also from South Gate.

52nd Assembly

Former Rep. Mervyn M. Dymally, a Democrat, is looking for a return to office, albeit a lower one, by seeking to become the assemblyman for the 52nd District of Compton, Downey, Paramount, Willowbrook and parts of Long Beach.

Dymally is facing a challenge from Mark Anthony Iles, a Republican small business owner.

54th Assembly

The Lowenthal name is nothing less than political gold in Long Beach. Three Lowenthals -- Assemblyman Alan, City Councilwoman Bonnie and Long Beach Unified School Board member Suja -- hold office.

Alan Lowenthal is running for re-election in the comfortably Democratic 54th Assembly District.

On Nov. 5, he'll face off against Republican businessman Cesar N. Castellanos.

55th Assembly

Assemblywoman Jenny Oropeza's stock has risen quickly in Sacramento. The former Long Beach City Council member, a freshman in the state's lower house, already has key committee positions.

Oropeza's district is heavily Democratic. The Republicans have a write-in candidate in Margherita Underhill. Guy Wilson is running for the Libertarians.

56th Assembly

The 56th Assembly District of Artesia, Cerritos, Hawaiian Gardens, Lakewood, Norwalk and Whittier is another Democratic stronghold.

Norwalk Councilman Rudy Bermudez, already well known in the area, is running for the Democrats against Republican businessman John W. Brantuk Sr.

Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1.

58th Assembly

The 58th Congressional District spans portions of Downey, East La Mirada, Hacienda, Industry, Montebello, Pico Rivera, Rio Hondo, Rowland Heights, Santa Fe Springs, South San Gabriel and Whittier.

Seeking to claim the open seat for the Democrats is Ronald S. Calderon, who works on the staff of Assemblyman Ed Chavez.

Whittier Councilman Dave Butler, a police officer, is seeking the post for the GOP.

Downey Council

In Downey, voters will choose from five candidates who want to replace District 4 Councilman Robert Winningham, who has decided not to seek re-election.

Candidates Anne Marie Bayer, Safa Kaddis, Maria Larkin, Craig Schwerdt and Leonard Zuniga are in the race.

In the only other seat up for grabs, District 2 Councilman and Mayor Meredith Perkins faces no opposition.

Although Perkins' name will appear alone on the November ballot, a write-in candidate has until Oct. 20 to file.

Los Al Council

Candidates in Los Alamitos are running for three seats on the City Council. In the race are council veteran Marilynn M. Poe, real estate broker Art Debolt, educator Alice Jempsa and attorney Bradley Sheraton and retired Police Chief Fred Freeman.

Los Al schools

Three candidates are vying to fill two seats on the Los Alamitos Unified School District Board. Members Marilyn H. Bates and Dominic Holzhaus are being challenged by teacher Vanessa Musso.

Los Al measure

Los Alamitos residents will decide the fate of the city's 6 percent utility user's tax by voting on Measure Q. Raw polls have shown voter support for the tax, which pays for city services.

L.B. measures

The city of Long Beach will have two measures on the ballot.

Measure T will ask voters to expand the powers of the city's Recreation Commission to allow the group more say on developments in city parks. Measure U will ask voters to increase the preferences given to local companies competing for city contracts.

Seal Beach measures

Seal Beach residents have two ballot measures before them.

Measure EE would raise the city's hotel tax from 9 percent to 12 percent. Measure FF would forbid the City Council from imposing rent control.

Signal Hill measure

Signal Hill voters will decide Measure Z, which allows them to keep an elected city treasurer or turn the treasurer's duties over to the finance director, who is an appointed city employee. The parttime, elected position of treasurer may be eliminated.

L.A. County measures

Los Angeles County voters will be asked to weigh in on two countywide initiatives, Measures A and B, which would be funded by property tax increases.

Measure A is called the Earthquake and Fire Safety Fund. Measure B is aimed at keeping state trauma centers open.

O.C. clerk

Orange County residents will elect a new registrar/recorder and county clerk. Anaheim Mayor Tom Daly is seeking the spot against Bruce Peotter, a recording document executive.

Press-Telegram staff writers Jason Gewirtz, Kristopher Hanson and Richard Howland, and The Associated Press contributed to this report.