CALIFORNIA'S REDISTRICTING MAY VEX BOTH MAJOR PARTIES

Herbert A. Sample
The Sacramento Bee
July 31, 2000

California House Republicans may be nervous about how their congressional districts will be reshaped by Democrats next year. After all, Democrats will have virtually unfettered power to draw new lines as they see fit.

But some of the state's House Democrats may have reason to be uneasy as well. Regardless of how badly they treat GOP incumbents, Democrats are likely to face several internal issues that are tinged with ethnic and political implications.

How will Democrats, for example, deal with burgeoning Latino populations in three Los Angeles districts that now are held by one white and two African American incumbents? November defeats of two GOP incumbents elsewhere in the Los Angeles basin could make the task of redrawing districts even more dicey.

In Northern California, Democrats may want to make the Sacramento-based district now held by GOP Rep. Doug Ose more amenable to a challenge in 2002. But that could require taking loyal voters from incumbent Democrats Robert Matsui, Mike Thompson and George Miller -- a prospect none may want.

Democrats will control the process because they enjoy comfortable majorities in the state Legislature, which redraws the lines, and they hold the governor's office. Republicans will have to rely on personal contacts and other indirect means to get their points across.

Despite this imbalance of power, few Democrats on Capitol Hill would talk about their redistricting hopes and fears. It is a subject fraught with so many political potholes that musing over it with reporters is usually not worth the trouble.

But the potential redistricting land mines facing Democrats are well known to academics, political activists in both parties and others, in Washington and in California.

The leading quandary at this time appears to be the burgeoning Latino populations in three Los Angeles districts held by nine-term Rep. Howard Berman, who is white, and five-term Rep. Maxine Waters and three-term Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald, who are African American.

"That is in some sense the most interesting thing to watch in redistricting in the whole country," said Morgan Kousser, a redistricting expert and social science professor at the California Institute of Technology.

Berman's district in central and eastern San Fernando Valley was 52.7 percent Latino 10 years ago, according to the 1990 census. Estimates peg the current Latino population as high as 62 percent.

Similar predictions for Millender-McDonald's or Waters' districts were unavailable. But anecdotal evidence of growing Latino communities coupled with gains of Latino candidates in local races has led many observers to believe that Latinos soon will become a potent political force in all three districts.

None of the three House members wanted to comment. But state Sen. Kevin Murray, D-Culver City, saw little prospect of internecine struggles over new boundaries for the three districts.

While many African Americans have moved out of Los Angeles, a large, active community remains, said Murray, who is likely to be chairman of the Senate Elections and Reapportionment Committee. Further, incumbent protection normally is a top priority in redistricting, which will benefit Waters, Berman and Millender-McDonald, he said.

Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Montebello, noted that the three House members have enjoyed strong support from Latino voters and that will continue. Their districts are unlikely to change so dramatically that they will face serious primary challenges by Latino candidates, he added.

Bernard Grofman, a political scientist at the University of California, Irvine, said he believes "eventual Hispanic seats" will be created that could elect a Latino if the incumbent were to leave office.

In the meantime, other observers predict Berman may want to pull more white Democrats into his district, perhaps from the Pasadena area. That could be complicated if state Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, beats GOP Rep. James Rogan of Glendale in November. Democrats then would need to strengthen Schiff's competitive district, perhaps at the expense of Berman.

Similarly, a victory by former Rep. Jane Harman over GOP Rep. Steven Kuykendall of Rancho Palos Verdes would put another Democrat in a dicey Los Angeles district. Shoring up Harman could affect Millender-McDonald's and Waters' districts.

Defeating Kuykendall and Rogan may help the Democrats win back the House, but it also could hinder their redistricting plans by giving them "less discretion around the margins," said Chris Skinnell, a researcher with the Rose Institute of State and Local Government.

Latinos also are slowly becoming a force in Central Valley, and someday may live in a concentration large enough to win a district there, said Alex Evans, a Democratic pollster and consultant. This year, Republicans hope to jump-start the population trends by sending former newscaster Rich Rodriguez against five-term Democrat Calvin Dooley of Hanford.

In the Sacramento area, Ose's district is considered the most vulnerable among Northern California Republicans. But to make it an easier target, Democrats would likely need to move loyal voters from one or more of three neighboring Democratic districts.

Skinnell suggested that Matsui would not be endangered much because registered Democrats are a strong majority in his district, as they are in Miller's. But neither lawmaker may want to give up too many allies, and Thompson's district has a narrower registration gap between the parties.

After the Legislature and Gov. Gray Davis enact new lines next year, the legal fight will rev up. There are likely to be lawsuits alleging partisan unfairness, misuse of census data and racial gerrymandering, among others.

"It's going to be a litigation nightmare . . . complicated by the fact that anybody and his brother-in-law can, for a couple thousand bucks, buy a computer program and draw districts," Grofman said.