CENSUS RAISING ELECTION STAKES - PARTIES SEEK TO REMAP DISTRICTS

Herbert A. Sample
The Sacramento Bee
April 10, 2000

In recent days, politicians have been hollering about census questionnaires. Some, citing intrusiveness, suggest the forms not be completed. Others contend they yield useful information and should be filled out.

But a cadre of Democratic and Republican political strategists are quietly focusing on a more strategic end game in census politics: electing their brethren in a small number of state legislative seats around the nation this fall.

A solid portrait of the nation's population is necessary, these strategists say. But, they stress, a higher priority is for their party to control the legislatures in several vital states, putting their party in position to use census data to its advantage when congressional district boundaries are redrawn next year.

Such districts are redrawn every 10 years to reflect shifts in population as reflected in census results.

The party with control of the right mix of state legislatures and governor's offices will hold the best shot at dominating the U.S. House of Representatives for the remainder of the decade.

"This fall's election and the redistricting process that will follow make the stakes really high," said J. Gerald Hebert, general counsel of IMPAC 2000, an organization set up by Democrats to coordinate their redistricting efforts.

The three-year squabble over census data adjusted by means of "statistical sampling" has been quiet in recent months. Minorities and the poor, for example, are thought to be underrepresented in census data; statistical sampling is an attempt to adjust census figures to compensate for such undercounting.

The dispute over this method is likely to rear up again early next year. Then, the new president must decide whether to release adjusted data. If he does, state lawmakers must choose whether to factor it into their redistricting plans.

Either way, lawsuits are likely to abound. But to the political strategists focused squarely on coming redistricting battles for the national parties, sampling may eventually matter less than who draws the new boundaries.

"Having a seat at the table or being in full control of the process is 10 times more important than what set of numbers you use," said Tom Hofeller, redistricting director for the Republican National Committee.

To that end, both national parties and their state counterparts are spending money and staff time to gear up for a battle royal fought on relatively few fronts. About 5,900 legislative seats are up for grabs in November, but strategists say only 20 to 60 are crucial.

Republicans, for example, would like to win at least one seat in the Wisconsin Senate and three in the South Carolina Senate, while retaining Pennsylvania's House and Texas' Senate. Democrats are eyeing the same contests, and hope to gain three Senate districts in Illinois and recapture Kentucky's Senate.

"This is going to get very exciting," said Richard Scher, a political science professor at the University of Florida. "There could be some very nasty surprises depending on which party is asleep at the switch."

California appears to be out of play because Democrats hold the Governor's Office and strong majorities in the Legislature. House GOP leaders recently opted against financing a proposal to take redistricting out of the hands of the state lawmakers, all but dooming its chances of making it onto the November ballot.

Soon after the fall elections, the Census Bureau will release state-by-state population figures for use in redistributing House seats among states. Pursuant to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling last year, that data will not be adjusted with sampling. However, the court's 5-4 ruling appeared to leave the door open for other uses of adjusted data, such as the apportioning of federal aid based on population.

Current estimates indicate that California will gain one new House seat, giving it a total of 53, while Texas, Arizona and Georgia will gain two each.

Inauguration of the next president in late January could signal the beginning of new fights over sampling.

As of now, the Census Bureau plans to release street-level census data adjusted with sampling, as well as unadjusted figures, by April 1, 2001. But the sampled data will be designated for states' use in redistricting. Many state laws require census data that is so labeled to be used in redistricting.

The bureau's plans are unlikely to change if Vice President Al Gore, a Democrat, ascends to the presidency. But Republican George W. Bush has been vague about his intentions, leading sampling advocates to believe he will release only unadjusted figures or designate the unadjusted data as the ones to be used for redistricting. That would probably invite lawsuits from-sampling proponents, mainly Democrats.