NM awaits census data, federal funding
Steve Ramirez
Silver City Sun-News
March 5, 2011
LAS CRUCES - In a sense, waiting for census results could be compared to waiting for an income tax refund.
Nobody knows exactly when New Mexico's 2010 census data will be released, and Census Bureau officials aren't tipping their hand.
Like the tax refund, the documentation for the census has been filed and compiled. Many federal, state and city officials have a decent idea of what census numbers will look like, just as people do in expecting how much of a tax refund they'll be getting this year.
"When you consider that federal funding is a significant and important part of the (city) budget, and that's because of population figures that come from the census, those numbers, all of that data, is vital and critical to the city of Las Cruces," City Manager Robert Garza said.
Like the cash in hand from a tax refund, favorable census results can mean more money for a state, and especially local governments like Las Cruces and Do a Ana County.
"It's tremendously important," said James T. Peach, a New Mexico State University regents professor, whose primary research interests include population economics. "At the federal level, hundreds of billions of dollars are allocated to states and communities based on their population size. That portion of federal funding can vary depending on whether a community's population grew or not."
Mayor Ken Miyagishima said federal funding based on city residents can add up.
"I was asked to speak about census, and on the information given to me, I want to say that the federal funding per person is about $7,000," said Miyagishima, of federal dollars for city programs and services. "It's a good chunk of money."
Peach added census data is just about as important to the private sector.
"When firms are looking for a place to locate, some of the things they'll look for first are population size, growth rates and income levels," Peach said. "The last few years, Las Cruces has been big enough, and we've experienced some of those benefits. Private companies and large corporate businesses use that data to determine if our community is well off enough to attract all kinds of things."
What's included in 2010 Census data
Stacy Gimbel Vidal, census spokeswoman, said a myriad of information should become available once the census data is released to a state.
"For each state, the Census Bureau will provide summaries of population totals, as well as data on race, Hispanic or Latino origin and voting age for multiple levels of geography within the state, such as census blocks, tracts, voting districts, cities, counties, school districts and such," Vidal said. "The Census Bureau will also provide housing unit counts with their occupancy status."
"Population data is always going to be incredibly important to the public and private sectors," Peach said. "Historically, the estimates have been adjusted substantially."
But he couldn't speculate what some of Las Cruces' and New Mexico's census data might reveal. As it is in many circumstances, there should be some intrigue while waiting for the unknown.
"The best we can do is wait and see what the numbers are," Peach said. "...No census is ever perfect. They do their best to try to count as many people as they can. That requires the cooperation of everyone, but not everyone is cooperative."
Surprises and getting older
Peach said the biggest surprise could be not the number of people, but how old they are.
"The biggest surprise they might find is that our population is aging," Peach said.
"Based on the trends of our state, there should be fewer young people, accounting for a smaller percentage of the population than we've been accustomed to seeing. It may be that our median age is now 34. A couple of decades ago, it was in the 20s. The median age across the U.S. was 36 a few years ago, and we're starting to catch up to that."
According to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey, which provides annual population estimates and demographics, the median age of Las Cruces residents in 2009 was 33 years old.
There aren't too many people willing to predict what the city's population will be when census results are finally released. But Miyagishima is willing to dream a little.
"I'm hoping the city breaks 100,000," he said.
Las Cruces' estimated population in 2009, according to American Community Survey estimates, was 93,452.
Local government census data
While the full picture isn't known yet, the bureau has issued some general information about New Mexico and other state profiles. The Governments Division of the Census Bureau said in December that the state's population had exceeded 2 million residents for the first time ever.
It also released some general financial data about local governments in New Mexico. That data concluded that New Mexico is: ranked 36th out of the 50 states in population; 32nd in the overall number of local governments in the state, with 863; 39th in the number of municipalities, with 104; 35th with 33 counties statewide; and 36th in the total amount of taxes collected and in expenditures on education.
"All of that data is completely separate and different from what the census will include," Peach said. "But the really significant data is still to come our way."
Challenging results
As in the past, there will also be a system in place to challenge census results. In 2000, New Mexico was among the states that disputed some census data, particularly population. State officials believed that New Mexico's population in the 2000 Census was low-balled.
After the 2000 Census, potential count problems were identified for 1,180 out of 39,000 jurisdictions - less than 3 percent of all governmental jurisdictions across the U.S. The final 2000 corrections resulted in a net gain in population of about 2,700 people, about 1/1000th of one percent of the U.S. population of 281 million people counted in the 2000 Census.
"The Census Bureau has created the Count Question Resolution program to address instances where a state, local or tribal government believes an error was made in the 2010 Census results for their area," Vidal said.
Census Bureau officials admitted there is historically a small percentage of cases where a wrong geographic boundary or coding of a housing unit was used to produce the official census population and housing counts for a local area. There may also be cases where, due to processing errors, the Census Bureau mistakenly duplicated or deleted living quarters that were identified during the census.
The Count Question Resolution program was created to specifically address three types of instances where a state, local or tribal government feels an error was made in the 2010 Census results for their area.
Steve Ramirez can be reached at (575) 541-5452.
2010 Census
•Twenty-six states have been issued 2010 Census data. They are Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wyoming.
•Seven more states will be issued their census data this week. They are Arizona, California, Connecticut, Idaho, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
•New Mexico's census data isn't anticipated to be released until sometime near the end of March.
•According to federal law, all states must be issued their census data by April 1, one year after Census Day.
•Some census data on local governments in New Mexico was issued in December.
The process for releasing census data
1. Pre-release announcement - A week ahead, the U.S. Census Bureau will announce which states will get data the following week.
2. The Census Bureau will first ship the data to the state leadership - including the governor, and legislative majority and minority leaders. The Census Bureau will also issue an advisory notifying that state's media that the data has been shipped.
3. The following day, the Census Bureau will confirm the state leaders' receipt of the data. The Census Bureau will then release the full data to its website, and post a news release and custom tables with top-line data for that state.
4. Within 24 hours of that, the data will also be available on American FactFinder, the Census Bureau's online data search tool.