Colorado unlikely to get new seat in Congress after 2010

Perry Swanson

January 20, 2010

The grand civics exercise called the U.S. Census will start in March and carry huge implications for the future of Colorado. Observers can probably check one implication off the list, though: This state is unlikely to get a new seat in the U.S. Congress this time around, according to some experts.

A national census is conducted once a decade to count of everyone who lives in the country. The main purpose is set out in the Constitution, which calls for an enumeration every 10 years to determine how many representatives each state gets in the U.S. House. The number of House members is fixed at 435, so a state where the population declines or remains steady is at risk of losing representatives after each census, while a state with a rapidly growing population is likely to gain more representation.

Colorado’s population increased considerably since the last census in 2000, from 4.3 million to 5 million in 2009, according to the latest estimates. But the increase probably wasn’t enough to call for a new representative in the House. For now, Colorado has seven representatives, including Doug Lamborn, who represents the Pikes Peak region as part of the state’s 5th Congressional District.

Two studies released last month, after the U.S. Census Bureau issued its 2009 population estimates, suggest Colorado will stay at seven representatives after 2010.

William Frey, a demographer for the Brookings Institution think tank, figures Texas will gain four representatives for a total of 36 after the next census. Other states will gain one apiece including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Meanwhile, Frey projects Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania will each lose one representative, and Ohio will lose two.

Clark Bensen at Polidata, a political data analysis company, offered exactly the same projection in a different study issued in late December.

Neither study predicted Colorado would gain or lose a seat. That was pretty much in line with a 2005 examination by the Indiana Business Research Center, which further predicted Colorado’s number of representatives will say the same at least through 2030.