Census to reflect boom in S.C. - POPULATION

Rudolph Bell
November 26, 2010

South Carolina is expected to see its biggest 10-year population increase in 150 years - a net gain of about 600,000 residents - when the U.S. Census Bureau discloses state headcounts by the end of the year.

"That’s a huge increase, especially given what happened in the economy," said Michael McFarland, a demographer with the S.C. Office of Research and Statistics.

The jump to a total population of more than 4.5 million, already evident in yearly estimates, will mark the biggest surge over a decade since 1860, McFarland said.

Estimates already show South Carolina netted 549,410 residents between 2000 and 2009, an increase of 13.7 percent.

Much of South Carolina’s growth is coming from newcomers arriving from urban centers in the Northeast, Midwest and Florida, according to surveys and other data collected by the Columbia publisher of the Carolina Living relocation guide.

Patrick Mason, the firm’s co-founder, said research shows an estimated 155,000 people will move to South Carolina this year. Their median household income is $119,000, 45 percent are over the age of 50, and 77 percent have college degrees, Mason said.

He said most came to like South Carolina after visiting the state for such things as sun and sand at Myrtle Beach, horse riding in Aiken or a family reunion at Lake Keowee.

Mason said Upstate destinations are growing in popularity, and he figures job opportunities, a low cost of living and high quality of life are among the reasons. Marketing by The Cliffs Communities and other luxury real estate developers is also likely a factor, he said.

Mason said the influx of

newcomers into South Carolina will only grow, with 74 million baby boomers about to turn 65.

"We haven’t seen anything yet," he said.

McFarland said the number of Hispanics is growing across the state, but official data doesn’t reveal the trend’s magnitude because many of the arrivals are undocumented.

The influx of outsiders carries ramifications for South Carolina’s politics and culture, as their expectations and desires may differ significantly from those of natives, he said.

The census numbers are also expected to confirm projections by McFarland’s office that show South Carolina’s population is aging.

According to the projections, the percentage of residents age 65 or older was expected to grow from 12.1 percent in 2000, 32nd among states, to 13.6 percent in 2010, 26th among states.

The population numbers out of Washington also will determine how much South Carolina localities will get in federal funding over the course of the decade and will change the state’s political districts.

South Carolina is one of six states expected to add a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives as the census figures drive reapportionment, according to Election Data Services of Manassas, Va.

The census also will guide state lawmakers as they redraw House and Senate districts next year.