Census, redistricting joined at the hip

Chris Camire
The Sun
December 7, 2010

BOSTON -- Once considered a lock to lose a congressional seat in 2012, Massachusetts could be spared when Census results are released later this month thanks to the recession.

Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer for the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute, said yesterday that residents aren't leaving the Bay State at the rate they were earlier in the decade.

"The recession is making it difficult for people to buy and sell houses, so they're reluctant to move," said Johnson. "The other factor is if people have jobs, such as a couple where both people are working, they're likely to decide it's not worth taking the risk to accept a transfer."

According to statistics provided by the IRS, 17,980 Massachusetts residents fled to New Hampshire in 2004, while only 8,305 New Hampshire residents relocated to Massachusetts. Just three years later, only 11,940 Massachusetts residents moved to New Hampshire, while 9,258 New Hampshire residents moved to Massachusetts.

Yesterday it was announced by the U.S. Census Bureau that the U.S. population grew to more than 300 million over the last decade. The estimates are separate from the official 2010 Census count, which is a few weeks away, but suggest there are going to be some surprises when those numbers are released, said Johnson.

"The recession has thrown estimates into a mess," he said. "What the recession has done has thrown everyone in place so they're not moving around as much as they should."

In the 2000 Census, the population was 281.4 million. The new estimate puts the country's population at between 310 million and 312.7 million.

Interest in the Census has reached a fever pitch in Massachusetts due to the political battle that drawing new legislative and congressional districts could spawn.

Secretary of State William Galvin, a Democrat, has already urged Massachusetts lawmakers to stay out of the redistricting process and hand the job over to an independent commission.

Gov. Deval Patrick threw his support behind the idea of an independent commission yesterday. Patrick said he still wants to discuss the issue with lawmakers, but said he believes that legislators should keep the process "at arm's length," as much as possible.

Senate President Therese Murray has not embraced calls for a commission. Murray and House Speaker Robert DeLeo recently named chairmen for legislative committees that will redraw the maps if Massachusetts loses a seat.

The Census numbers that will determine how many congressional seats each state is allowed are expected to be released before Dec. 31.