Poor response to census may haunt Texas - State stands to lose out on seats in Congress due to participation

Hope Yen
April 29, 2010

Texas is among five states - New York, California, Arizona and Florida are the others - that are perilously close to losing out on congressional seats because of lackluster participation in the U.S. census.

The five states were average or below average in mailing back 10-question census forms when compared to other states, trailing by as many as 5 percentage points, according to the final census mail-in tally released Wednesday.

Based on recent population trends, New York, California and Texas had been estimated to fall just above the cutoff for the last House seats when they are redistributed next year. Waiting behind them in hopes of picking up additional seats are Arizona and Florida, which are already expected to gain one seat apiece.

Houston, Harris County and Texas each exceeded their 2000 Census mail-in return rates this year, while falling short of the national rate.

Better than last time

In Houston, 67 percent of those who received forms returned them, compared to 64 percent in the last decennial census. For Harris County, the figures were 69 percent this year and 67 percent in 2000; the Texas rates were 69 percent this year and 68 percent in 2000.

Texas was among 28 states that met or exceeded their 2000 rates, the Census Bureau said. Nationally, the 72 percent return rate this year equaled that of a decade ago.

Responses from Texas and the other four states also raise a red flag because of their higher shares of residents who are Latinos. The Census Bureau has said one of its main concerns is whether tensions over immigration will discourage Latinos, and particularly illegal immigrants, from participating in the government count. That issue returned to the forefront after Arizona passed a tough immigration enforcement bill.

Latino residents represent a predominant share of the population growth in Texas, New York, California, Arizona and Florida, making up more than 50 percent of total growth since 2000. As a result, those states could face big losses if there isn't full cooperation when the Census Bureau on Saturday begins knocking on the doors of those who did not respond by mail.

Of the five states on the cusp, the biggest potential losers are California and New York, which could have a net loss of one and two House seats, respectively. Texas may end up gaining just three House seats instead of four.

Latino count a concern

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, said he was concerned about some skittish Latinos who may refuse to answer their doors, particularly given Arizona's new immigration law.

"I'm incredibly disappointed with the Obama administration in their efforts to promote the census," Vargas said, citing the government's failure to halt immigration raids during the count as it did in 2000. "It may have the impact of shooting people in the foot if Arizona ends up losing out on a House seat."

The midterm report comes as the Census Bureau prepares to begin door-to-door canvassing, the most costly and error-prone portion of the count.

In all, more than 600,000 workers will fan neighborhoods at rates of $10 to $25 an hour until mid-July to query people on the 10 census questions on race, gender and family relationships. It's part of a government hiring spree the Commerce Department says could alter the unemployment rate by several tenths of a percentage point in April and May.

Door-to-door tips

At training sessions this week, temporary census workers were instructed on the protocols of conducting interviews, such as how to tabulate answers on race (let people self-identify if they're multiracial, but a label of "American" isn't a sufficient response), where to ask questions (outside, since census workers should not ask to enter a person's home) and carrying proper identification (government badges and a "U.S. Census Bureau" bag).

Census workers also are being told to be respectful if homeowners refuse to cooperate, to keep data confidential and to alert supervisors if there are signs of danger. In the last 12 years, there have been 21 work-related deaths involving census employees, including a dog attack on a 71-year-old worker in 2000.