Officials urge Census count to minimize area's population loss

Adam D. Young
March 8, 2010

Results of this year's U.S. Census may show most South Plains communities have lost hundreds or thousands of residents.

That's why community leaders are urging their residents to fill out their census forms this month to minimize their on-paper losses or buck the trend of rural-population decline. OAS_AD('Position3');

Though Lubbock County's population is expected to grow by nearly 22,000 people, the eight counties surrounding Lubbock could expect to see a combined population loss of nearly 7,000 people, according to 2008 census estimates. Those same counties lost nearly 1,750 people from 1990 to 2000, despite Hale County gaining nearly 2,000 people during the 90s.

Gloomy census projections showing a decrease of about 1,000 people from Plainview between 2000 and 2008 and trends of rural population decline across the South Plains don't convince city manager Greg Ingham his city's past its peak.

"We think we may see a slight decrease over 2000, but we're not expecting anything dramatic," he said.

He said Plainview's stable supply of jobs from such employers as its Wal-Mart distribution center and Cargill meat-packing plant have helped the city from hemorrhaging its population.

At a time when other towns in the region are experiencing a net population loss, Ingham said, Plainview, with a 2008 census estimate of 21,334 people, likely is experiencing a stair-step affect because of its status as a mid-sized city in the region.

"We may be picking up people from some of the smaller cities but we may be losing people to Lubbock and Amarillo," he said.

To encourage future growth, Ingham said, his city must maintain its streets, schools and other infrastructure despite a temporary loss of population.

"It won't be that we're not going to fix what we've got because we've lost 500 people," he said. "We have to minimize any loss."

Muleshoe City Secretary LeAnn Gallman said lower census projections - including a nearly 6-percent decrease in her city's population from 2000 to 2008 - don't convince city leaders their town is on the decline.

In fact, Gallman said, Muleshoe leaders expect the city's population to match or even exceed the 4,530 people estimated in 2000.

"We do expect an increase in population," she said. "We're going to be disappointed if there's not."

She said Muleshoe's population likely will increase slightly because of additional jobs from the nearby dairy industry and an increase in students in its school system during the decade - the system's enrollment peaked near 1,538 students in 2005 before falling back this year to the 1,440 it had in 2000, according to the superintendent.

Leaders in city's such as Wolfforth and Levelland also expect this year's census findings to contradict or exceed census projections.

"We'd love to see any kind of increase," said Erik Rejino, director of administrative services for the city of Levelland.

He said a 2006 estimate by a private firm showed Hockley County's population to be 900 people greater- 4 percent - than the 22,716 people estimated by the Census Bureau in 2000. In 2008, the Census Bureau projected the county shrank by more than 500 people to 22,205.

To prove his community isn't shrinking, Rejino said, his city aims to make sure all people living in Levelland and Hockley County are counted.

"And the only way we can tell if we're growing is if we actually fill out the census," he said.

Hockley County and Levelland only had a 60- and 63-percent census-form completion rate in 2000 respectively, he said.

Rejino said he expects a higher completion rate in 2010 because this year's form, with only 10 questions, is more user-friendly than the 2000 Census form, which had 30 questions.

"You're going to give out more information on a credit card application," he said.

Rejino said Levelland has a Complete Count Committee focused on working with apartment complexes and other organizations to disseminate information about the census.

Growth at South Plains College, which had record enrollment of more than 10,000 students this fall, also could help increase the city's population, he said.

College students living in Levelland should be counted as Levelland residents, Rejino said.

"If they're living here or renting here, they need to be registered here," he said.

For Wolfforth, the question isn't if the city is expected to grow - rather, by how much?

The city of Wolfforth estimates, based on water meters, 3,600 people live in the Lubbock suburb, said Wolfforth City Secretary Debbie Youngblood.

That's 101 more than the Census Bureau's 2008 estimate for the city, which projected the town's population at 3,499 - nearly double its 1990 population.

Wolfforth's economic growth may be testimony enough to the town's expanding population. Youngblood said a Holiday Inn Express hotel that opened earlier this year as well as several other businesses and a hotel that are pending completion in the near future are signs the city is growing at a fast pace.

The 2010 Census is set to begin March 15, and the results will affect such factors as the region's federal funding and state and national representation.

In two weeks, the bureau will mail census forms to about 120 million households across the country. Each household will have more than two weeks to fill them out and return them beginning Census Day on April 1.

To comment on this story:

adam.young@lubbockonline.com l 766-8725

charles.reinken@lubbockonline.com l 766-8706