County numbers continue to drop

John K. Mannajmanna
April 1, 2010

Lawrence County continues to lose population, but the loss has slowed a bit in the last couple of years.

According to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, Lawrence County's population dropped to 90,160 as of July 1. That represents a loss of 4,479 people, or 4.7 percent, since the 2000 census, which recorded a population of 94,639.

The county's 1990 population was 96,246.

The estimates show that the county had a loss of 2,219 people through net migration -- those moving out of the county compared to those moving in. In addition, the number of deaths exceeded births by 1,677.

With the exception of Butler County -- which increased by 6.1 percent -- surrounding counties also have experienced population losses.

Beaver County's population fell by 5.4 percent and Mercer County's by 3.5 percent during that period.

While Lawrence County's population dropped in each of the nine years since the last census, the loss slowed in the three-year period from 2006 to 2009. The same was true for Beaver and Mercer counties.

Commenting on that period, County Commissioner Steve Craig said that over the years, the county has experienced both a loss through net migration and deaths exceeding births.

"And that has slowed down relative to the economy. So, you don't see that net out-migration like you used to."

Craig said he believes more young people are staying home and going to college nearby and more people are commuting to their workplaces such as Pittsburgh.

Plus, because of the downturn in the economy, the economic possibilities "are not as great elsewhere."

"That's my sense of it."

Chris Briem, regional economist of the University Center for Social and Urban Research at the University of Pittsburgh, said Lawrence County -- as well as the entire Pittsburgh region -- continues to feel the impact of the manufacturing decline of 30 years ago.

He noted the Pittsburgh metro region is the only large metro area in the country that has had a natural population (deaths minus births) decline. That's a reflection of an older population, he said.

Although Lawrence County is not part of the metro region, it has experienced the same demographic effect.

However, Briem said, "We're doing better."

The overall migration rate is "clearly going down because of the recession."

He said the Pittsburgh region labor force, which includes those who are employed or seeking employment, hit an all-time high last month: 1.24 million people.

"People are staying here or can't get jobs elsewhere."