CENSUS GIVES SIZE A GUESS

J.N. Sbranti
June 23, 2010

The U.S. Census Bureau released new city by city population estimates Tuesday, but don't put too much faith in their accuracy.

They were based on Census 2000 population counts, then manipulated to provide estimates for how populations have changed since then. Using 10-year-old base data is problematic, but it is the best available until Census 2010 counts are complete.

Population shifts in the Northern San Joaquin Valley have been particularly dramatic the past decade because of the region's building boom, followed by the foreclosure crisis and soaring unemployment.

Census Bureau estimates figure Modesto's population peaked in 2003 and has dropped about 1 percent since. It calculates Modesto had 202,747 on July 1, 2009, which was 1,709 fewer than it supposedly had in 2003.

The estimates take into consideration births, deaths, domestic and international migration, and housing unit statistics.

But some of the bureau's population numbers sound suspicious, considering how many homes have been vacated because of foreclosures. The estimates, for example, show Patterson, Los Banos and Stockton setting population records, despite the fact they have some of the nation's highest foreclosure rates.

Census 2010 should provide much more clarity.

The once-a-decade census is a door to door head count. Census takers this summer continue to track down occupants of homes that did not complete census questionnaires. Participation in the census is mandatory.

That 2010 data will start to be released this December. That's when state population counts, used to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, will be released.

By April 1, 2011, census counts for counties, cities and assorted other small geographic places will be released.

To see a complete chart by year since 2000 of this region's city populations, call up this story on www.modbee.com.

Bee staff writer J.N. Sbranti can be reached at jnsbranti@modbee.com or 578-2196.

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CITY POPULATION ESTIMATES

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CALIFORNIA

July 1, 2009: 36,961,664

ANGELS CAMP

July 1, 2009: 3,703

ATWATER

July 1, 2009: 26,198

CERES

July 1, 2009: 42,667

ESCALON

July 1, 2009: 7,333

GUSTINE

July 1, 2009: 5,098

LATHROP

July 1, 2009: 17,256

LIVINGSTON

July 1, 2009: 13,368

LODI

July 1, 2009: 61,450

LOS BANOS

July 1, 2009: 35,120

MANTECA

July 1, 2009: 65,631

MERCED

July 1, 2009:76,274

MODESTO

July 1, 2009: 202,747

NEWMAN

July 1, 2009: 10,182

OAKDALE

July 1, 2009: 20,497

PATTERSON

July 1, 2009: 19,033

RIPON

July 1, 2009: 14,738

RIVERBANK

July 1, 2009: 20,684

SONORA

July 1, 2009: 4,624

STOCKTON

July 1, 2009: 287,578

TRACY

July 1, 2009: 79,235

TURLOCK

July 1, 2009: 68,712

WATERFORD

July 1, 2009: 8,914

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Division