2010 Census could be costly for Louisiana

By Steven Ward

January 31, 2010

Lawmakers, parish presidents, demographers and political analysts in Louisiana are concerned about the accuracy of the 2010 Census that will be conducted this spring in part because of what could happen in Orleans and St. Bernard parishes, which were ravaged by Hurricane Katrina.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Louisiana, which has seen a steady exodus of people since the 1980s, had a net loss of 58,172 residents between 2000 and 2008 - one of two states to suffer overall population loss during that time. The other state is North Dakota.

Part of Louisiana's population loss is what is known as "the Katrina effect" when thousands of people left the New Orleans metropolitan area and moved to other parishes and other states. Some former residents have returned while others are planning to return.

East Baton Rouge Parish and the Baton Rouge area benefited from the Katrina effect immediately after the 2005 storm, and Mayor-President Kip Holden is looking forward to the Census results.

"I think we are going to see a much larger number of residents here than the 19,000 or so people demographers have come out with in their estimates," Holden said.

Traffic counts in the city-parish have been up 35 percent since Katrina, Holden said, and that really tells the story of the population boom locally.

The results of the Census help to determine the number of U.S. congressional seats and are used in redrawing district lines for the Legislature, city councils and school boards and other public bodies. Federal money tied to the 10-year headcount totals about $400 billion. The money will be used nationally for states to plan schools, build roads, manage health-care and fund grants.

Jim Llorens, an assistant chief administrative officer for Holden, said each person not counted in the Census could cost a community between $1,000 and $3,000 per person per census period. He said the average undercount estimate is 4 percent.

Using that figure, Llorens said, if a community has 400,000 people, a 4 percent undercount could cause it to lose $16 million or more per census period. East Baton Rouge Parish has 428,360 of Louisiana's 4.4 million people, according to the Census Bureau.

Political power is at stake too.

Legislative redistricting expert Patricia Lowrey-Dufour has said that if current U.S. Census projections hold, the Baton Rouge area, which includes parts of fast-growing Ascension and Livingston parishes, should get an additional seat in the Louisiana House.

Like East Baton Rouge, Ascension and Livingston expect increases in population.

"In 2000, we had just over 60,000 residents. We expect the 2010 results to show that we are just above 100,000 people," said Cedric Grant, chief administrative officer for Ascension.

Livingston Parish President Mike Grimmer expects a 50,000-person increase in official population once the 2010 Census results are released. Livingston's population in 2000 was about 81,000 people, he said.

"Housing permits have definitely been up since the (Katrina) storm," Grimmer said. "I sure hope people realize how important it is to fill out these forms."

How important?

John Carpenter, another assistant chief administrative officer for Holden, said East Baton Rouge Parish is planning extra efforts to ensure an accurate count by raising awareness of the Census . The efforts include plans to hire part-time workers to walk neighborhoods and get the word out, he said.

The Katrina effect

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and St. Bernard Parish President Craig P. Taffaro Jr. have asked former residents who have been living elsewhere since the Aug. 29, 2005 storm but who intend to return in the coming months and years to come back April 1.

Nagin and Taffaro want such residents to fill out Census forms stating that their former New Orleans area communities are their permanent homes.

Holden opposes the effort.

"I'm a 100 percent against it. It's not normal and it's against the law. It's blatant abuse," Holden said.

Holden said he may lodge a complaint with the U.S. Secretary of Commerce about what Nagin and Taffaro have asked their former residents to do.

"Other parishes are taking care of these people and it's a demand on our services," Holden said of the former New Orleans area residents who may at some point return home.

Shreveport political analyst Elliott Stonecipher agrees.

Stonecipher said what Nagin and Taffaro are urging former New Orleans area residents to do could lead to over counting, inaccuracy and a loss of federal money and unfair representation to communities in Louisiana that have truly grown in the last 10 years.

"Lots of people will be over counted and there has to be some kind of oversight and there's not," Stonecipher said.

Because of the Katrina effect, the U.S. Census Bureau will hand deliver census forms in Orleans, St. Bernard, and Plaquemines parishes this year while the forms in the majority of the state and the majority of the country will be mailed to residents.

Gabriel Sanchez, regional director for the U.S. Census Bureau's Dallas region, which covers Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi, said the handout method of delivery in the three parishes was deemed necessary to ensure an accurate count as a result of Katrina.

Although Nagin and Taffaro had not contacted the U.S. Census Bureau about their call to former New Orleans area residents, Sanchez said, he had heard about the requests.

"The Census is a snapshot of where people live, not where people want to live. Filling out a Census form falsely is illegal and any call by anyone to falsely fill out Census forms is misguided to say the least," Sanchez said.

The instructions on the 10-question Census form that will go out to residents in March state, "Count all people, including babies, who live and sleep here most of the time."

Nagin said he is not asking former residents who have found permanent homes elsewhere to return to New Orleans to fill out Census forms.

"I'm not interested in people who have put down stakes somewhere else coming back. But if there are still people trying to come back to New Orleans and haven't yet because of some hang-up, they should be counted here," Nagin said.

Taffaro has called for former residents who intend to return in St. Bernard Parish in the next couple of years to come back and "sleep over" on April 1 to fill out Census forms.

But Taffaro said he does not want anyone breaking rules.

"However, Taffaro, who is leading a parish that was completely flooded by Hurricane Katrina, believes special efforts by the Census Bureau are not sufficient," St. Bernard Parish spokeswoman Karen Bazile wrote in an e-mail.

"He (Taffaro) thinks those who are working and planning to return in the next few months or the next year or two should be allowed to count St. Bernard as their residence," Bazile wrote.

Although they didn't name Nagin and Taffaro, two members of Louisiana's congressional delegation, U.S. Sen. David Vitter and U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany, both said the only way to ensure Census accuracy is for residents to fill out forms reflecting where they actually live.

"Everyone should live by the letter and spirit of the Census Bureau law. Anything else would be inappropriate," said Vitter, R-La.

Boustany, R-Lafayette, expressed similar thoughts.

"We don't want to see anybody try and game the system. We need to make sure the count is accurate," he said.

Boustany represents Louisiana's 7th Congressional District, which covers Acadiana and the southwestern part of the state. Hurricane Rita hammered the region on Sept. 24, 2005.

Louisiana has seven congressional seats - six held by Republicans and one by a Democrat - after having eight for decades.

New Orleans demographer Greg Rigamer, who has tracked the New Orleans population since Katrina by counting residences with utilities turned on, said he disagrees with the notion of counting people who don't truly live in New Orleans as area residents.

When Rigamer and other demographers do their work, they consider births, deaths and migration - both people moving to and people leaving an area.

U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, however, said that what Nagin and Taffaro are asking former New Orleans area residents to do is "reasonable," a spokesman for the Louisiana Democrat said.

"Senator Landrieu believes it's reasonable to ask that Louisiana residents, who were displaced by the (2005) hurricanes and intend to return, fill out a form indicating that they are permanent residents," Landrieu's press secretary, Robert Sawicki, wrote in an e-mail.

"Many Louisiana citizens are still making efforts to return to their homes and it would be a tragedy if they are not counted for another 10 years," Sawicki wrote.

What's at stake?

Stonecipher and Vitter also have concerns about 2010 Census inaccuracy because there is no citizenship question.

In November, the U.S. Senate voted to block an effort by Vitter that would have required the Census Bureau to identify noncitizens in the head count.

Vitter also said the difference of counting non-citizens would make up for a U.S. congressional seat Louisiana is projected to lose in 2011 as a result of population loss in the 2010 Census .

Landrieu opposed Vitter's effort.

The 2010 Census , as is, does not take citizenship into account at all, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The count is a tally of residents, not legal U.S. residents.

Stonecipher said other states have much larger noncitizen populations than does Louisiana. Therefore, if noncitizens were counted as such, he said, Louisiana would garner more federal money and population gains than other states with a large number of noncitizens.

Stonecipher told the Press Club of Baton Rouge in September that counting undocumented migrants would give seven states more congressional seats in the 435-seat U.S. House of Representatives at the expense of Louisiana and other states.

Stonecipher said the majority of the state's population loss between 2000 and 2008 was from the New Orleans area because of Katrina and from northeast Louisiana, which has had continuous out-migration and is one of the poorest regions in the country.

LSU sociology professor and demographer Troy Blanchard has said that to retain the congressional seat Louisiana is projected to lose, the state's population would have to grow by about 400,000 people over the course of a year.

Vitter and Boustany both said the loss of a congressional seat could be devastating to Louisiana because of the loss of a vote, representation on committees and the influence.

Landrieu has a different take.

The senior senator said it would be "unfortunate to lose a congressional seat but she also believes the quality of the congressional delegation is more important than the quantity," wrote Sawicki, Landrieu's spokesman.

" Louisiana has had an influential delegation that has consistently delivered for the state, and the loss of one of its seats would not likely change that," Sawicki said.

In addition to the state's congressional districts, population numbers based on the Census results will determine the makeup of the state's House and Senate districts.

State Rep. Rick Gallot is the chairman of the Louisiana House and Governmental Affairs Committee. His panel will lead efforts on redrawing House district lines based on the 2010 Census results.

"Some people see the Census as an invasion of privacy and an inconvenience, almost like a call for jury duty," he said. "They think one count won't make a difference."

But Gallot, D-Ruston, said people need to understand the importance of Census results.

"The results can affect everything from potholes to money for schools to knowing the age of residents to know if an area needs more nursing homes," he said.

"The results are used to see how many people are of child-bearing age, which helps communities plan for schools. The numbers are used for planning purposes. There is a lot of money at stake," Gallot said.

ON THE INTERNET

The 10-question 2010 Census form:

http://2010. census .gov/2010census/how/interactive-form.php

Quick facts and statistics on Louisiana:

http://quickfacts. census .gov/qfd/states/22000.html

Population estimates on the nation, states, counties, cities and metro areas:

http://www. census .gov/popest/

Caption: Color photos: Kenyettia Williams, right, takes a phone call while sitting at the recruiting 'boat' of the 2010 Census office in Baton Rouge during the Jan. 22 grand opening of the office on Industriplex Boulevard. The 'boat' is the place where calls are made and received for the hiring of census information field workers. Others in the 'boat' are, from left, Anthony Davis, Carole Grover and Linda Mire. Gabriel Sanchez, the U.S. Census Bureau's regional director of the Dallas region, which covers Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi, answers questions after the Jan. 22 grand opening of the 2010 Census Baton Rouge office on Industriplex Boulevard. The opening of the Baton Rouge office marks the official beginning of a massive recruiting campaign to hire local residents to assist the federal government in the 10-year head count. (Advocate staff photos by Travis Spradling) Color graphics: "Population changes in Louisiana parishes from 2000 - 2008" (Source: Greg Rigamer, demographer; U.S. Census Bureau) (Advocate graphic) "Changes 2000 - 2008" - A map of the United States that shows states that are losing populations (Source: Greg Rigamer, demographer; U.S. Census Bureau) (Advocate graphic)