Raw census figures distort Electoral College

 

Lloyd Omdahl, The Dickinson Press
February 22, 2009

With the U.S. Census Bureau already recruiting employees, the decennial head-count is underway. According to the U.S. Constitution, the census is supposed to include "the whole number of persons in each state" at the time of the count.

The census numbers are important for a variety of reasons. First, the gross population figures are used by the federal, state and local governments for the distribution of money. Big bucks are at stake. In North Dakota, for example, each person is worth close to $1,000 in state aid to cities over a 10-year period.

The Census is also used for the apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Apportionment of House seats on the basis of a count of "the whole number of persons" raises serious questions about the use of the figures.

The "whole number of persons" includes illegal immigrants and non-citizens. Consequently, states with large non-citizen populations are getting Congressional seats - and votes in the Electoral College - to which they are not entitled. This is no small matter.

The 2000 head-count revealed that 19 percent of California's population (6.4 million) consisted of non-citizens who were ineligible to vote but these non-citizens gave the state 12 extra members of Congress in the 2000 Congressional apportionment. That means California also had 12 extra votes in the Electoral College in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

The Texas count included 14 percent non-citizens (2.9 million), giving the state six extra Congress members and six extra Electoral votes. Non-citizens gave New York and Florida each four more members of Congress and four more Electoral votes.

With Congressional seats and Electoral votes at stake, you can bet that California, Texas, New York and Florida will be working hard in the 2010 census to include every non-citizen they can find. Because the nation's electorate is equally split, the 26 misallocated Electoral votes in these four states could be pivotal in a close election. The misallocation could become even more serious with the 2010 count.

This double distortion - Congress and Electoral College - provides fodder for advocates of state legislation who are working to bypass the Electoral College with a multi-state compact that would pledge to elect the candidate with the most votes nationwide as the president. This proposal is before many of the state legislatures now in session.

Such legislation was quickly killed in the 2007 North Dakota Legislature and did not make an appearance in the 2009 session. North Dakotans believe, rightly or wrongly, that the Electoral College gives them extra influence in presidential elections so legislation rendering the College irrelevant will always be unwelcome in Bismarck.

The movement is still alive in other states. The "National Popular Vote" promoters report that 22 legislative chambers have passed the measure. However, the proposal has finished the course in only four states - New Jersey, Hawaii, Maryland and Illinois.

As time passes, this misallocation of Electoral College votes will become one more undemocratic feature that will undermine efforts to preserve the College.

 

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