Snowbirds could prove costly to state funding
Nicholas Backus
December 15, 2009
LINO LAKES - Because of population fluctuations, Minnesota is in danger of losing a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010, according to state census records.
Those projections are causing alarm to state census officials who are working to make sure every Minnesota resident is counted when official 2010 Census forms arrive at addresses across the nation. One demographic they're focusing on is snowbirds, or residents of cold-weather states who flock south for warmer climates during winter. If snowbirds fill out and turn in census questionnaires at winter homes, they add to populations in states like Arizona , Texas and Florida while sapping Minnesota of population, and hence its political power.
"Right now we're saying that fewer than 3,000 people are needed to retain the seat," said Ashley Edwards, a local government liaison to the state demographic center. "We need to make sure everyone is counted because it will be that close."
According to Minnesota State Demographer Tom Gillaspy, estimates from last year have states like Texas , Florida and South Carolina as seat-stealers from states like Minnesota , Iowa and North Carolina . Gillaspy fears that Minnesota is currently below the line of retaining that crucial 3,000 for population purposes. Ten years ago, Wisconsin lost a seat, and Iowa is also expecting to lose a seat for this next census cycle.
"We're the only state that has held its own in the last half century," said Gillaspy, state demographer since 1979. "We want to be the most accurately counted as we were in the last two decades."
According to demographer estimates, each Minnesota resident counted is worth $1,200 in federal money per year. That means for every 100 people not counted in 2010, Minnesota will lose $1.2 million over the next decade. Gillaspy said the loss could affect everything from dairy product rates to equitable Medicare reimbursements to proper highway and school funding.
"All these things depend in part on our population," he said.
Carol Priem, 67, considers herself a Lino Lakes resident, but has been enjoying a few months in the Tampa area in Florida for the past 10 winters. She gets her mail forwarded to her temporary Florida residence, but the U.S. Postal Service does not forward census questionnaires - forms are sent to addresses, not people. Although snowbirds will receive the questionnaire at both addresses, Minnesota census workers are telling them to wait until they return home to fill out that form.
The good news for Minnesota is reduced travel because of recession. Lino Lakes Senior Center Director Peg Smith said she is seeing fewer residents head south this winter.
"A lot of people who normally go aren't going this year because of the cost," Smith said. "People are also getting older and they don't want to go down. The younger ones still do it."
"People can't find new jobs or sell their homes," he said.
Despite reasons for Minnesotans to stay put, Gillaspy said its hard to gauge how many snowbirds will fill out the wrong 2010 census questionnaire.
"Some people go for two weeks, some for three months," he said. "If you are taking a vacation, don't fill it out in Arizona and Florida because when you return home, it will be there."