Census to trigger political shifts

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen • Contra Costa Times • April 25, 2009

With all the hype over who will succeed Rep. Ellen Tauscher in the 10th Congressional District, it's easy to overlook a couple of arcane processes called reapportionment and redistricting.

But the potential impact of these two events triggered by the 2010 Census is significant: The man or woman who becomes California's newest representative in Washington will serve just one term before the results of the next Census activate the mandatory redrawing of congressional district lines.

By the time the 2012 election rolls around, the freshman legislator could find his or her residence outside the district and face a re-election campaign with a very different set of voters.

Or the district could disappear all together.

Virginia-based redistricting firm Election Data Services says California, under several predictive computer models, could lose population relative to the rest of the country and see its congressional allocation drop from 53 to 52 districts. (A caveat: The models are based on projections of historical data and may not account for the impact of the recession on migration patterns.)

As for those two processes, reapportionment is the system under which each state receives its proportional share of the 435-member House of Representatives, based on population.

Redistricting is the mapping of political boundaries within each state.

Before California voters passed an initiative creating an independent redistricting commission in November, the Legislature had the job of mapping the state's boundaries for congressional, Board of Equalization, Assembly and Senate districts.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi managed to exempt Congress from the new panel's jurisdiction.

Thus, the House will again produce its own set of maps and submit them to the Legislature for ratification.

What does that mean for a newly elected member of Congress from the 10th district? Redistricting expert and UC Berkeley Professor Bruce Cain lays out some scenarios:

Population shifts within California push the boundaries of heavily Democratic Bay Area districts eastward into more conservative regions. If applied to District 10, it could narrow Democrats' 18-point registration advantage in the district.
California loses a seat in Congress but due to population growth in Southern California, the loss comes from Northern California. That could also pull District 10 east into more conservative areas.

"This is where seniority could kick in," Cain said. "If everybody has to get pulled in some direction, a freshman might suffer. But the Democrats are more likely to target a Republican district for collapse."

It's impossible to predict what will happen. There are too many unknowns.

But here is one thing we do know: If you want to ensure that your neighborhood is accurately represented when mappers in 2011 begin drawing new lines for every seat from county supervisor to Congress, fill out your Census form when it arrives in April 2010.

GOT POLITICS? Read Political Blotter at www.ibabuzz.com/politics:
Check out the back story of Lt. Governor John Garamendi's news conference Tuesday to announce his candidacy in the 10th congressional district and watch a video clip. Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan was right on his heels with her announcement Thursday.

AND FINALLY. They may have lost their last elections but former Antioch Mayor Don Freitas and Councilman Arne Simonsen have no plans to retire from the public square.

They are putting together a public policy discussion group patterned after Freitas' traditional Friday morning gathering at Sylvia's Country Kitchen restaurant.

"We're looking at 15 to 20 people who get together once a month and talk about issues that affect the city," Freitas said. "I used to meet at Sylvia's every Friday when I was mayor — the mayor doesn't have an office at City Hall — and I enjoyed the discussions."

Not to worry. Freitas says the group is not part of a plot to return him to City Hall, office or no office.

You'll get no such promises from Simonsen, who says he will almost certainly run for the City Council in 2010.

Two incumbents' terms are up next year — Reggie Moore and Martha Parsons.

"My idea is to have a small, bipartisan group that will advise the City Council and offer alternatives and analysis," Simonsen said. "Yes, there is a doggone good chance that I will run in 2010. That's not the purpose of the group but I want to ensure that the council in 2010 has something left to work with."