U.S. Census issues population estimates

The Times Argus
September 1, 2006

Population figures issued by the U.S. Census Bureau are among the wealth of data contained in the 2006 Central Vermont Community Profile sponsored by Cigna and published by the Central Vermont Chamber of Commerce. Nearly 4,000 copies were recently mailed to area business and community leaders.

The Census Bureau estimates indicate declines in population since 2000 in four Central Vermont towns. Declining populations in Barre and Montpelier were expected; dips in Roxbury and Worcester were not.

A regional forecast of town populations to 2020 made shortly after the 2000 U.S. Census had projected declines in Central Vermont's two largest cities. The forecast estimated a decline of 250 residents in Montpelier and 100 in Barre City by 2005. The newest estimate has Montpelier losing 32 residents, and Barre shrinking by 163.

While neither Roxbury nor Worcester lost many residents, no decline was expected. The Census estimate suggests Roxbury's population has shrunk by seven residents; Worcester by15.

Overall, growth since 2000 is less than forecast. The local forecast indicated the region would likely grow by 1,900 residents by 2005. The Census estimates the growth at 1,566.

Barre Town and Waterbury are the top growing local municipalities. Barre Town has added 400 residents and Waterbury nearly 300. Collectively, Marshfield and Plainfield added 200 residents. East Montpelier and Middlesex added more than 100 each.

According to Will Sawyer, lead coordinator at the Vermont State Data Center, the Census estimates at the county level are based on vital statistics; i.e., birth and death records.

In distributing county population to cities and towns, the Census Bureau uses the "distributive housing unit method." This method uses building permits, mobile home shipments and estimates of housing unit loss to update housing unit change since the last census. Smaller Vermont towns that have no zoning offer limited housing data and are most susceptible to significant errors in the estimates.

In general, the regional forecast mirrored the Census estimates. The chart below shows the enumerated 2000 U.S. Census population figure, the local forecast for 2005 and the new 2005 Census estimate of population.

The community profile also contains data on housing sales and prices, property taxes, school enrollments and much more.

The profile was compiled by Chamber Executive Assistant Brenda Comstock who thanked the publication's 60 advertisers and Retired Senior Volunteer Corps volunteer Bonnie Greene for making it possible. The annual publication is a ready resource for business and community decision-makers. Those who did not receive a copy can pick one up at the Central Vermont Chamber office in Berlin.

Data point is a commentary on data compiled by the Chamber of Commerce.