New Census estimates reflect old

Ray Watters
Rocky Mount Telegram
May 5, 2002

The U.S. Census Bureau has released a new population estimate for the Twin Counties, an estimate some officials say undercounts the area because of the 1999 flood.

"It's based on the 2000 Census, which already knocked us down as a result of the flood," said Lorenzo Carmon, Edgecombe County manager. "Any reimbursements figured on population numbers will quite noticeably affects us negatively."

The Census Bureau estimates Edgecombe County lost 852 residents - a 1.5 percent drop in population - and Nash County gained 1,023 residents - a 1.2 percent gain in population - between April 2000 and July 2001.

"These estimates use the 2000 Census as a base, then use other data to extrapolate changes," said Robert Bernstein, public affairs specialist for the U.S. Census Bureau in Washington, D.C.

Death certificates, birth certificates and IRS records make up most of the documents used to estimate the new population numbers, Bernstein said. Some federal programs do use the estimates - which are revised every year - while others use only the official Census done every decade.

Many local officials have said the 2000 Census seemed low, oftentimes posting lower population numbers than statewide estimates. Princeville specifically said that residents displaced by the 1999 flood threw off the Census numbers.

"We had kind of thought we were a little higher than what the Census had," said Robert Murphy, Nash County manager. "We're glad we're moving in an upward direction, but it's not so significant as to change anything (in our plans)."

The bureau's new population estimates are 54,754 residents in Edgecombe County and 88,443 residents in Nash County. During the same time period, North Carolina gained 136,955 residents - a 1.7 increase in population to 8,186,268.

"Any population increase helps us in a number of ways," said Steve Raper, Rocky Mount city manager. The city provides water, natural gas and other services to residents outside the city limits.

Raper agreed that the 2000 Census numbers for Rocky Mount did seem lower than what was expected.

Overall, 55 percent of all U.S. counties grew since April 2000.

In terms of percentage change in population, Nash County is 44th in the state and Edgecombe is 96th. In terms of raw number of residents, Nash County is 32nd and Edgecombe County is 98th.

Only Cumberland and Onslow counties lost more residents than Edgecombe during that time period, according to the bureau's estimates.

Nash County now is 30th in the state for overall population, and Edgecombe County is 45th. There are 100 counties in North Carolina.

Nationwide, nine of the 10 counties that grew the fastest since the 2000 Census were in the South: three in Texas, three in Georgia and one each in Virginia, Kentucky and Florida.