Mayor disputes census figures

Scott Earp
The Jacksonville News
December 19, 2002

Contrary to popular opinion, no news does not necessarily constitute good news. One such case comes in the form of the battle taking place between Jacksonville municipal leaders and the U.S. Census Bureau. Some two years after the census count of 2000, Jacksonville continues to find itself embroiled in a heated battle to clarify the numbers.

While some may contend the accuracy of the count is a moot point in the grand scheme, Mayor Jerry Smith begs to differ. Smith, who has been a staunch vocal opponent of the census results, stands firmly behind his initial statements that Jacksonville was badly misrepresented by the census bureau.

"The census count can affect us in ways that we may not even be aware of," explained Smith. "We have seen a lot of potential investors pull back because the numbers say we are not big enough to warrant their investment. I am concerned that this situation occurs many times that we are not aware of. I am afraid there are potential investors who consider relocating their businesses to Jacksonville, see the numbers issued by the census bureau and never even come forward.

"There is no way to quantify the total impact that these low numbers are having in Jacksonville."

Unfortunately, while city administrators have no doubt they are on the just side of this argument, the fight appears futile at best. The biggest obstacle is the appeals process itself.

"Not only did the census bureau undercount our city," explained Smith, "but they also control the appeals process."

The city finds itself continually jumping through hoops in the off chance they might convince the bureau to even consider their case, let alone agree to re-assess the population figures.

At one point, when the count was first released, council members toyed with the idea of conducting their own recount. This idea was nixed for the most part when discussions opened the door to just how costly and time consuming and undertaking of that magnitude would be. Frankly the city admitted they had neither the manpower nor the financial resources to conduct a complete recount of Jacksonville. Mayor Smith, however, insists they have not totally given up hope on the possibility of a city-initiated recount. He notes they have merely narrowed the scope of how a recount might be introduced.

"We have not taken the idea of recounting the entire city too seriously," explained Mayor Smith, who suggests the numbers may be accurate in some sections and undercounted in others. "We are hoping to get information from the bureau to determine where undercount was worst. If we can get that information, we may consider conducting our own recount of those areas."

For now it is a waiting game, and Smith admits he has no idea how long this process could take.

"To be honest with you," explained Smith, "this is taking a lot longer than I thought it would. I thought we would have made some progress by now, if not have settled the entire matter.

"In truth, they have not really acknowledge us at all at this point."

Smith knows the truth behind the saying, "You can't feed a dead horse pie if he is not hungry," and notes the wait will last until the census bureau decides it is interested in looking at Jacksonville's particular numbers.

Officials at the U.S. Census Bureau recently announced that they may have undercounted the state by some 52,000 residents (1.2 percent of the state's population).

"We think we have two or three thousand residents who were not included in our count," added Smith.

Smith makes this claim based on the city's belief that Jacksonville's population should have either increased or stayed level during the period between the 1990 and 2000 census counts. Officially, the disputed figures show a dramatic 18 percent population decrease in Jacksonville. Jacksonville's population figures reached 10,283 in 1990 and then slid to only 8,404 in 2000.

"The closing of Fort McClellan did have an impact on our population," explained Smith, "but we feel the numbers show our figures have continually risen since that initial decline."

Smith points to the fact that school enrollment continues to climb, as do the purchase of water meters and the revenues generated by sales taxes, both definitive indicators of an areas growth or decline in population figures.

"There are no indications," concluded Smith, "that we have experienced a loss of population in Jacksonville, especially not a loss as dramatic of the census bureau is proposing."

While this may indeed be the case, it all boils down to a matter of playing the waiting game. If the city is determined enough to have its population recounted, the bureau will eventually find themselves in a position of having to do something. For now Smith and the rest of the city's administrative leaders try to make the best of a bad situation.

"Something will be done eventually," added Smith, confident that the process will work. "Until then, we plan to keep working hard to make Jacksonville the best it can be.