On Heels Of Ehrlich, GOP Plans Md. Ascent

Washington Post, The (DC)
January 9, 2006
Author: Matthew Mosk; Washington Post Staff Writer

When longtime state Sen. Robert H. Kittleman died in 2004, he left behind blueprints for turning Maryland into a Republican stronghold. They were found clipped to political maps and census data on a shelf in his Howard County farmhouse.
Kittleman's son says his father knew these were fanciful plans -- that it could take generations to turn Maryland from one of the nation's most reliably Democratic states to one where Republicans compete on equal footing for political power.

But this year, as Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. becomes the first Republican governor in half a century to seek a second term, top party leaders are dusting off Kittleman's dreams. True party realignment remains a distant goal, they say, but the political season that begins as the General Assembly convenes Wednesday will be guided by their desire for lasting influence in state affairs.

"We've been in the desert for 36 years," said John Kane, the state GOP chairman. "The governor has given us a toehold. Now we'll see if we can become truly relevant."

Maryland Republicans say the model for what's possible sits just across the Potomac River. In Virginia, GOP leaders toiled for decades to climb from the back benches of power to ultimately control both legislative chambers.

A similar effort in Maryland faces significant obstacles. An election defeat for Ehrlich this year, first and foremost, would set back any attempt to gain Republican footing. Demographics also pose a challenge. Unlike Virginia, this is a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 on voter rolls. And in the state's three largest jurisdictions -- Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore -- Democrats have widened that advantage in recent years.

But top Republican officials said the party is borrowing many of the ideas that started Virginia down the path to realignment three decades ago.

In addition to their focus on the Maryland governor's race, they believe the bid by Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele (R) to capture an open U.S. Senate seat could provide inroads into the state's most reliable Democratic voters: African Americans. The GOP is targeting the state's populous blue-collar suburbs and fast-growing exurbs, where party leaders hope to pick up as many as 14 seats in the House of Delegates and seven in the Senate this November.

And they're already contemplating 2010, when a win in the governor's column could give them control over redistricting and crack open a state where, just a few years ago, Republicans felt like foreigners.

Richard E. Hug, the fundraising muscle behind Ehrlich's 2002 and 2006 campaigns, still remembers how he felt shortly after the 1994 election, when Republican Ellen R. Sauerbrey narrowly lost to Parris N. Glendening. Not long after, Hug was at dinner with James S. Gilmore III, who was then Virginia attorney general and went on to become governor.

"I was bemoaning the fact that, you know, we lost, whereas these guys in Virginia had done such a good job, and I asked him, 'How did you guys do that?' " Hug recalled. "He said, 'Dick, it just takes time, patience, and a lot of hard work. You guys can do the same thing.' "

Twenty years ago, most greeted the notion of political realignment in Virginia as a harebrained idea, said S. Vance Wilkins Jr., the former House speaker who is largely credited with orchestrating the Republican takeover there.

"People didn't think it could happen," Wilkins said. "But I just got tired of being mistreated. I realized you have to make a commitment."

The strategy, he said, started with a drive to recruit viable candidates for seats held by vulnerable Democrats. It was an arduous task, especially, he said, because he was asking people to run for a chance to go to Richmond and be in the minority.

"I had to sell them on it," Wilkins recalled. "To beseech them that it was a very important thing to do. That, to me, it's a calling almost."

The shift was gradual. In 1981, Republicans held 25 of the 100 House seats. In 1992, they held 37 seats. In 1994, their ranks grew to 48. In 1999, the Democratic Party clung to power by a single seat, 50 to 49. In that year's elections, Republicans gained control.

In Maryland, the disparity remains stark, but the trend line looks a lot like Virginia's. Maryland Republicans held just 16 of 141 House seats in 1983. That grew to 25 seats in 1991. Then 35 in 1999. They now hold 43. For many years, one of those seats was occupied by Kittleman, who served as House minority leader before moving to the Senate.

"My father spent almost his entire legislative career in the minority with a Democratic governor -- those were some lonely years for Republicans," said Sen. Allan H. Kittleman (R-Howard), who occupies his father's Senate seat. Despite two decades in office, his father had never entered the governor's office until Ehrlich's 2002 election. "When he finally got in, he looked at the governor and said, 'Can I sit in your chair?' "

Strategizing about bulking up those numbers had been a passion of Kittleman's, and his son said they both recognized the opportunity created by Ehrlich's victory. Now, party leaders could reach out to potential candidates and sell them on the chance to be a part of something.

"Candidates look and see: Yes, Republicans can win here," Kane said. "That's what's going to create a stronger bench for the party."

One place where they're looking to plant those seeds is District 31. That district covers the blue-collar suburbs just south of Baltimore in Anne Arundel County, an area that for years was dominated by a handful of popular Democratic clubs but is now trending Republican. In 2002, Ehrlich carried the district by 70 percent, but the Senate seat is still held by 20-year veteran Philip C. Jimeno, a Democrat.

Jimeno agrees that the numbers don't suggest a promising future for Democratic candidates in his area, but he believes the numbers don't tell the whole story.

"My experience is that, in the local races, these voters are not looking at party," he said. They are looking for the person who was at their PTA meetings, at the Rotary Club, at the civic association block party. When he runs, he never even mentions his party affiliation, Jimeno said.

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert), who is largely viewed as the architect of the Democratic strategy to hold control of the legislature, said many of the targeted Democrats are in the Jimeno mold -- they transcend party.

"I'd like to see the person who's going to run against John Astle, with his two Purple Hearts and a conservative voting record," Miller said of the Democratic senator from Annapolis. Sen. James Ed DeGrange Sr. (Anne Arundel) "goes to the gym every morning, then he goes to church. He's a role model. He's someone people respect. These are people who are going to get reelected."

Both Miller and House Speaker Michael E. Busch (D-Anne Arundel) have been working on plans to keep these and other Democrats safe. Busch recently hired a campaign consultant to help vulnerable House Democrats keep their seats. And Busch and Miller have provided their legislative leaders with fundraising targets and asked them to direct some of their excess money to the campaigns of those members who might be in trouble.

Although some of that money will be headed to Anne Arundel, much will go to incumbents in Southern Maryland. In 2002, registered Democrats slightly outnumbered Republicans in Calvert County, but now the GOP has a slight edge. And the same trend has put Republicans within reach of gaining a majority in St. Mary's County.

Efforts to protect those vulnerable Democrats also will be evident in how the legislature fields such controversial issues as gay marriage, abortion and, of course, taxes. Historically, Miller has used the power of his presidency to shield members in key districts from tough votes, especially in an election year.

Louis M. Pope, Maryland's Republican national committeeman, said he is familiar with internal party documents that plot the long-range course for realignment, and he believes there are forces at play that over time will put even tough districts within reach. Among them, he said, are the declining influence of labor unions and the potential for Republican candidates to gain a slice of the black vote.

He described it as a "multi-election task," with the goal this year focused on gaining enough seats in each chamber to prevent the legislature from overriding a governor's veto and to give Republicans in the Senate enough strength to mount a filibuster.

Of course, Kittleman said, the party's most important task will be to hold on to what the GOP has gained -- the governor's office. Ehrlich is facing a strong challenge from two well-known Democrats, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan.

"Having a Republican governor whetted our appetite," Kittleman said. What November's elections will decide is whether the party can look ahead to the next course.

This is the first of several stories planned throughout the 2006 election season exploring Maryland's changing electorate.

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